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21-O And The Lessons Of Politics In Adamawa State By Umar G. Pella
For every student of power the game theory is a very familiar one. It is a body of thought dealing with rational decision strategies in situation of contest and competition, when each participant or player seeks to maximize gains and minimize losses. It owes its genesis to parlour games like chess, poker or bridge with obvious elements of conflicts, decisions-making and cooperation, played between two or more players, where the decisions of each player are contingent upon the decision of others, and the central point, therefore, is the inter-dependence among the decisions of different players participating in the game. In a game like chess there are usually three possible outcomes-namely: win, lose, or draw. The prospect of each game has a specific outlook or reward for each player. This is described in the game as pay-off. In chess the big pay-off is winning, a draw is the second best and losing the third best pay-off. The most outstanding form of this theory is the zero-sum game, where the gain of one player equals the loss of the other.
As old as this theory is, I have always read and left it at its abstract level. It has never crossed my mind that it can be likened to a political scenario so close to me until the April-26th election in Adamawa state.
I was at the country home of the Minister of State for Culture and Tourism, Dr. Aliyu Idi Hong, a day after the election, when a friend sent me a text message: “Power to the People. It is 21-0.” Very simple, but intellectually tasking. The first segment of the sentence was very clear. It is PDP’s slogan and the genuineness of its interpretation is what I cannot provide here. The second part of the sentence was what sent my intellect racing. I realized that my friend was likening the election in Adamawa state to a game. A game where PDP won all the 21 Local Government Areas of Adamawa state thereby defeating out rightly the other political parties prominent among which is the Action Congress (AC). That text triggered and reminded me of my high school knowledge of the games theory in politics and I started trying to situate the situation in Adamawa State within matrix of the games theory.
Like the game of chess, we saw the deployment of tactics and strategies by all parties aiming at maximizing pay-offs that will catapult them to their preferred outcomes i.e. winning. Also like the game of chess all were certainly aware that at the end of the game there will be a winner and a loser. It was also certain that the game was a zero-sum one, where the gains of the winner automatically translate to the loss of the loser. So when my friend stated in his text “…21-0”, I was able to locate the meaning of his message within the prism of this theory, especially when one is conversant with the kind of politics played in this part of the world. A world where concessional democracy is a rarity and accommodation of the opposition is at best minimal.
My friend’s message does not stop at the ordinary simple arithmetic expression of 21-0 which symbolizes the PDP having a lead in the entire 21 Local Government Areas of Adamawa state- from Toungo to Madagali and from Shelleng to Maiha, which is a demonstration of the might and popularity of the party in the state but more importantly, it connotes that the other parties’ decimal performance in the election may mean decimal gain from the government of Nyako and his PDP. One does not need to be a prophet to conclude just that.
Anybody conversant with the geopolitical terrain of Adamawa state especially at the eve of the election had every reason to concur that the election was a looming war. A “do or die” affair and a deciding moment for the political future of Adamawa state elites. A proud competitive elite. It was virtually reduced to a battle between two contending elite groups. The PDP elites whose rallying point is Senator Jibril Aminu and the AC elites whose pillar is without doubt Aminu’s ache-political enemy, Atiku Abubakar. Thus, the decision of April 26th has glaringly established a number of truths about the politics of Adamawa state.
First, that observers and participants have all concurred on the freedom and fairness of the election and its attendant peaceful conduct, where Iwu’s INEC was at least for once commended. And that the supremacy of PDP over AC and other political parties in the state is now not in contest as symbolized by the PDP’s 21-0 victory.
Secondly, the myths built around political giants like Atiku Abubakar was eroded. However, one lesson, Atiku and any other beneficiary of power must learn from this demystification is the art of building and consolidating political empire with the pillars of political associates and contemporaries not only boys and brief-case carriers. A peep into Atiku’s political camp reveals an array of boys who’s Head is Boni Haruna.
Atiku’s present predicament is rooted in his mistake of 1999.When he was crowned the Vice president by the former president Obasanjo (some critics also said it was Obasanjo’s biggest mistake as was later confirmed by his regrets). Atiku saw his elevation from a governor-elect to a Vice president as an opportunity to dominate his environment. He thus embarked on the mission to convert all his friends and contemporaries including his benefactors and mentors into his boys. The resistance to this oppression at different times by these groups was interpreted as a product of envy and jealousy. Surrounded by fair-weather friends and sycophants, intoxicated with the toxic wine of power, he branded whoever refused to submit an enemy that must be crushed and thrown to the dustbin of political irrelevance in the state. As he became hostage to a bunch of boot-lickers, he was blinded from seeing ugly scenario and his ears were blocked from hearing unpalatable stories, even if they are issues that can consume him. He therefore became a prisoner of political jobbers and mystic fortune tellers and seekers, detached from genuine friends who can look into his eyes and tell him the truth no matter whose ox is gored.
For the eight years Atiku presided as a Vice president, he has always told whoever came across him that he was biologically orphaned at early age. One must also add that as his animosity with his friends, contemporaries and his benefactors soared, he was also socially orphaned at base. How is Atiku expecting to remain relevant in the politics of Adamawa state while he is not in good terms with his childhood friends like Koiranga Jada (Mutawallen Adamawa), Barkindo Mustapha (Ciroman Adamawa), Dahiru Bobbo (Dan Madami Adamawa), Manasah John,etc; his political contemporaries like Wilberforce Juta,Pascal Bafyau, Lawrence Ngbale, Bala Ngilari, Paul Wampana, Buba Marwa, Joel Madaki, Donald Alahira, JJ Fwa (Murum Mbula), Jonathan Zwingina, Bubakari Kamale, General Aliyu Kama (rtd), General H.Hananiya (rtd) Air Commando Dan Suleiman (rtd), Senator Abubakar Girie, Hon. Awal Tukur, etc; his benefactors and mentors like General Abdullahi Shelleng,(rtd), Bamanga Tukur, Prof. Jibril Aminu, Hassan Adamu (Wakilin Adamawa) Admiral Murtala Nyako (rtd), Farouk Jauro etc; and aquired political liabilities like Saleh Michika and Adamu Muazu Modibbo. The last 21-0 defeat in the election in Adamawa state was not just a defeat for AC or its Candidate Ibrahim Bapetel, but a demystification of Atiku’s political myth and the decoration of his third orphanage crown. He has also become a political orphan. While biological orphanage, is a natural phenomenon and cannot be reversed or remedied. Atiku’s social and political predicaments are not really beyond remedy. His political bravado is certainly not in doubt. To be relevant in the politics of Adamawa State therefore, he must cement his relationship with his lovely old friends, useful contemporaries and highly rated benefactors and mentors. A word is enough for the wise.
v UMAR G. PELLA, teaches politics at the Department of Public Administration, Adamawa state University, Mubi
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