Warnings Recur After Awolowo’s Prophesy On Oil Income

By

Farouk Martins Aresa

faroukomartins@aim.com

 

If Nigeria has not fallen on its face since 1981, Awolowo cannot be right, we “wisely” imagined. Diversification into agriculture and related industries have been on our radar for so long, a kid born then would be an adult by now and if he or she is well connected, probably a minister of money bags.  We are being warned of calamity as foreigners depend and buy less of our oil.

Each time some of us hear or read on daily basis warnings about profligacy on income needed to diversify our economy away from oil dependency they remind us of that prophet of doom since 1981, Chief Obafemi Awolowo. There are so many of them these days, it is hard to discern who is predicting the doom day or who is exploiting our gradual coasting to that day. That is why we think the Governor of Central Bank Soludo, must be a disciple of doom blowing hot and cold.

We do not know who he is trying to kid and scare about financial meltdown in Nigeria after reassuring us Nigeria is safe. We used to respect him as a top economist until he turned into one of those Awolowo’s students. Funny, if his prophet of doom cannot scare us before he died, who knows why he thinks he can. As long as burukutu, ogogoro and palmy flow with isi-ewu, the rest are bansa. Whenever we wake up from our slumber, we will pick up what is left of Nigeria.

Soludo is telling us we have enough foreign exchange to take care of our import for about two years. So what is the problem mister?  Thanks heavens, some of us do not import anything. There are more gari, yams, corn and millet than we need. The last time we checked, we do not need foreign exchange for those. We only eat local strong fowls, not those imported oyinbo chicken that hardly last in our mouth. Suya and asun are well spiced for our watering mouths.

You would think that a man who turned agriculture into gold in the Western Region and warned us of dire consequences would be the one to lead Nigeria into a repeat. No! There is a difference between Nigeria and the ancient Egypt where Joseph who predicted famine became an overseer. This is not ancient time please. Nigerians ridicule such prophet of doom.

A smart cripple who heard about Tsunami 30 years ago would have made his way to higher ground by now, not Nigeria. Some people are daring the worst, no matter what. No wonder, those who benefit from the same oil export and its income are investing outside of Nigeria. There is this notion that a few of us will loot our way out of the day oil stop dripping. Others think those few will be struck down by lightning. Well, we are still kicking, strong and hearty.

You see, Awo was a very capable administrator, no doubt. He managed the economy through the Civil War without borrowing a kobo, of course. Indeed, he was the best President Nigeria never had, but there was something about him that does not add up. He was just too shrewd.

He once said he wanted to do for Nigeria what he did for the West. He stole Delta oil income in the sixties and gave it to other Nigerians. Never mind Gowon’s backdoor implementation of the 1968 Dina Committee Report with Decree 9 of 1971. Wait a minute…, which was the same year Awolowo quit the Military Government in dismay. Some of us suspected a link.

We cannot blame Gowon, it was Ironsi that instituted unitary state in 1966 with Decree 34 only to be rescinded by Gowon as he took over. He restored the regions but no generated income from the 12 weaker states created, which divided up ethnics and locked in core Igbo. What a move?

While the Dina Committee Report of 1968 favored bigger allocation of revenue to the Federal Government, it was rejected in 1969 by the commissioners of finance of the federation led by Chief Awolowo who was their chairman and Vice to Gowon. It was no secret that as Awo and other politicians then were preparing for civilian rule, the former Premier favored the states. Gowon quickly saw the rejection as a political move; they became dispensable after the war.

Awo had thought he could win the core North by mesmerizing them with helicopter during the 1959 election campaign, that failed. All he did was force the great Sardauna out of complacency. He later went to the East with his Igbo running mate to campaign in1979, only to almost lose his life. Awo was not even a good politician, a man who told us the bitter truth instead of what we wanted to hear could not have known about 2009 meltdown in 1981 anyway.

We do not like those who have governed us since Independence either but those of us who have personal reservations about Awo’s policies suspected his motive in his 1981 warning. It was the same Awo who developed agriculture in the West without oil and used the income not for the East, the North but only for the West. So we could not trust him. O.k. yeah, he shared some.

We like sincere Nigerians, though we are yet to find one to lead us. We can wait. We will diversify our oil income when we find the right leader. If we change our mind about Awo, he cannot come back anyway, he is dead and gone. We know some experts are saying oil may run out before then. So? Even if oil does not run out, the Japanese and Americans are moving away from oil dependency already. If they do not need our oil, there may be more for us our use.

Awo painted an ugly picture but he was never a painter apoda. Our professors have not been able to do anything about it, and Americans have not been able to replace their oil dependency since the Arab embargo of the early 70s, so it must be a hard nut to crack. Awo was not a nut cracker!

All the foreign money has never touched our hands in the villages. That is how they promised to diversify and build a steel industry so that we could be self sufficient. We are still waiting. It is a lucky thing we never held our breath. Waiter palmy!  Many of us live in the villages without cars and other form of transport. That is what they spend money on, yet many of us never use them.

There was this time we went to one of their sin cities called Lagos. We never see so much foolishness in our life. Some of them wear clothes full of small and large holes like that of a beggar and call it lace. They import them from Austria. It is unbelievable that someone would spend so much foreign money on rags.

Another time we went to Abuja. It was full of humongous buildings, some tall and others bigger than their families. The problem was that they could not climb more than two or three stairs because they say the elevators do not work and toilets do not function. You see, that is why we build toilets far from our houses. Dirty people!

If you think some of us are foolish, look into the mirror, you will see mumu.