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Nigerian Economy at a Stoop By Abbas A. Dikko
Over the years, there were stiff popular calls from various quotas and segments of the country for the diversification of its ailing economy from single to multi-digits that by extension, from oil to non-oil sub-sectors of the economy but, successive governments and there leadership turn deaf ears over this clarion calls of national prominence. Immediately after the massacre of 15th Jan, 1966 that stalemated the 1st republic and the outright discovery of oil in commercial quantity at the creek area of Niger Delta region, succeeding government completely abandoned the agricultural and mineral sub-sectors of the economy that were as at that time, the major revenue earners and economic mainstay of the country.
The oil commodity ever increasing demand at the International arena became the easier and facilitating avenue for the country’s source of foreign exchange, forming the substantial part of its revenue that was mistaken by the leadership to be the nucleus of the nation’s economic activity. Therefore, the thought for its gradual diminishing, demand or price fall were never taken into cognizance hence, the issue of diversifying its accrued revenue to develop other sub-sectors of the economy such as agriculture, mineral resources and tourism were as well, never given any due consideration. That begets laziness, unfocused-ness, recklessness, corruption on the part of the leadership. Sycophancy, sabotage, bunkering on the part of the led with the aid and connivance of some disgruntle foreign nationals.
Further more, the reason proffered for this unfounded or best put it, shameless failure of the leadership to diversified the economy from oil to non-oil sub-sectors was insincerely hipped on the military overstayed in the governance, reason to best debunk as baseless and does not in anyway holds water. It has been a historical fact that the primary purposes or objectives of any government; be it military, monarchy or democracy the world over, is to fast track human, capital and infrastructural development. Manner, method, mechanism and approach employed to achieving that objectives or goals, determines the competence, dexterity, integrity and know-how of a country, its people and leadership. Hence, the failure of the country’s economy and its system in general, has nothing to do with the military overstayed in the art of governance but, incompetence, insincerity, lack of determination and commitment on the part of the military and civilians leaders alike, inordinate ambition and overzealousness to amass easy and stupendous wealth at the detriment of the country’s interest is/was equally a contributing factor.
Over bearing and reliance on oil revenue and capitalism as a veritable and only instrument of the country’s economic policy direction, put Nigeria at an adverse position in this centurial financial melt-down. Years before now, due to the same single digit policy, the nation’s economy was for quite times stationary; reason why, the negative impact was less felt. But today, it has nosedived down-ward heading to unstoppable collapse because, the arresting measure were long times ago, neglected by successive and succeeding regimes.
Nevertheless, the best time this country ever had since its nationhood was 29th May, 1999, when it witnessed a returned to democratic rule and the smooth take-up of the fourth republic. It successively ran for eight simultaneous years free from any intervention of whatever nature and more fortunate to the administration, the proceeds from crude oil was as much as ten times-fold, more than what the previous governments put together got since the attainment of independence. Unfortunately and disgustingly, the leadership under that democratic government, of course, former President Olusegun Obasanjo, could not in anyway maximize, synergize and utilize the windfall and window of opportunities it had to transform and revitalize the economy. However, what constitute the administration’s major engagements were vengeance, disruptions and destructions of all aspects of national lives.
Eight democratic years of governance were brazenly wasted and all the accrued voluminous revenue from high crude sale, recklessly squandered and partly stolen, bequeathing behind a derailed economy, saturated polity and weak leadership at the center, over eighty percent unfocused at the federating units and a bow and go senate. If not for the political audacity of the Green chamber, the system would have by now been more devastated if not completely eroded. The unfolding world economic down-tone does not in anyway matters to the Red chamber or a cause for serious concern to implore patience and carefulness in the processes, deliberations and passages of 2009 appropriation bill. Rather, it carelessly, hastily and speedily went ahead and passed the 2009 budget without recourse to constitutionality, due process and the present unveiling global economic depression.
Today, the Nigerian economy is at the verge of collapsing, all the lag indicators are at play; a downward crude oil price below the budgetary bench mark of $45 per barrel, downward fluctuating naira against the stronger currencies of the world, high interest margin, hyper inflation, lack of credit facilities, uncertainties at the stock exchange market, collapsed of productive industries and foreign reserves depreciation. Another unveiling scenario that calls for caution and concern, is the recent up-ward booming of the property market, the recent downward trend home and Abroad of the capital along side the International property market is another indicator that the existing leadership in collaboration with the stakeholders in the industry to quickly expedite action in order to save the market from collapsing as it is being witness in the stock exchange market today.
Disturbingly, the presidency from all its previous outing, attested to its sluggishness in the conduct of the affairs of governance, a trend that may not augur well for this country under this diabolic recession. Another debilitating factor is; over the decades it is/was never in the tradition of the country’s leadership to put aside pre-cautionary measures against unforeseen circumstances of whatever magnitudes, making it difficult for the existing government to source funds by way of approval through the legislative arm to inject into the financial system like other developed economies of the world in other to contained the aggravating situation.
Only and except the leadership begin to look inward and swallow the bitter pills of diversifying to develop its non-oil sub-sectors of the economy and again, embrace fiscal federalism, else, Nigerian economy will forever remain stagnant and stationary even after this global economic depression come to pass. Times immemorial, the country had witnessed series of economic policies and programmes orchestrated by the past/present leadership without any meaningful result(s) basically because, the leadership ignored with every stretch of insensitivity or insincerity all advices, counseling, suggestions and proffered solutions of independent economic experts, analyst and simple basic economic variables in addition to the ones stressed above.
Policy inconsistencies and selfish interest of the ruling and business classes formed another factor why the nation’s economic revivalism failed to make any head-way. The immediate last regime alien economic policies that culminated into the insincere sale of government parastatals, manipulative concession of certain viable sectors of the economy, billions of naira unmerited import waivers to certain individuals, groups and companies, over a trillion naira unjustifiable subsidy to NNPC and major importers of refined crude commodities, equally negated the country’s effort for economic resuscitation.
And now, the biggest calamity that bedeviled the whole world; the world financial melt-down in other words, global economic crisis and its attendant consequences on oil economy that happened by omission or commission to be the bedrock of Nigerian fiscal policy framework or best put it, economy which, by no means will have a consequential negative impact on all aspects of national lives. Yet, the Apex bank governor, Chukwuma Soludo is/was convinced beyond all doubt that the country’s economy is insolated or immune from the world economic recession.
However, the swift reaction of the Finance Minister, Mansur Muktar and quick composition of 13 men economic intervention team to be chaired by him, is a clear attestation of the dangers ahead. Though, the modalities and sincere intent of the team can only be scored or underscored by the out-come of their work, whether able or otherwise, to rescue this nation from the financial cogmire. In that wise, the team has to take into account of the inaugural speech of the 44th American, President Barack H. Obama.
Indeed, he was categorical as I thus quote: We will harness the sun, the wind, the soil to fuel our cars and run our factories; this no doubt, signifies the intention of the American government of shifting its renewable energy policy far-away from oil. Henceforth, the country’s single-digit economic policy direction from now on should be tailored far from oil economy to non oil sub-sectors. At least, the country is potentially and abundantly endowed with natural and human resources. In similar vein, Mansur Muktar should monitor with extra-caution, members of the Presidential economic steering committee more especially, Aliko Muhammad Dangote and Tony Elumelu whom by all credentials are businessmen that can never compromise the interest of their conglomerates. Indeed, it’s alleged long before now that Dangote group that is 95% imports oriented, had never in anyway made any significant contribution to jump-start the country’s battered economy.
In yet another development, President Barack H. Obama, strongly emphasized that “To those leaders around the globe, who seek to sow conflict or blame their society’s ills on the west, know that, your people will judge you on what you can build, not what you can destroy” Further “To those leaders who cling to power through corruption and deceit and, the silencing of dissent, know that, you are on the wrong side of history but, we will extend a hand, if you are willing to unclench your fist” These statements are unequivocally and undeniably synonymous with Nigerian leadership and system. Therefore, it has become compellingly a most for the Nigerian leadership to cultivate or kick-start a freer and fairer process of conducting people’s affairs in semblance with the best acceptable practice and civil order the world over.
Abbas A. Dikko
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