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Nigeria in the Emerging World By Fabian Chuma Obiora
Our world is changing fast. Each day throws up fresh challenges and opportunities. The past decade has thrown up challenges, perhaps the greatest this generation have known. Humans owe their existence to their ability to adapt to the changes in the environment. At the national level countries need to have short term, medium term and long term plan to ensure their continuous survival and progress. They should be proactive rather than reactive. Being proactive means there should be continuous scanning of the environment and strategies developed based on the findings to take advantage of the opportunities while limiting the possible negative effects that may be encountered due to emerging threats. Successful nations act this way.
Our world today is faced with three different albeit related challenges. These are climate change, depleting fossil fuel reserves and population growth. They are changing our world beyond recognition and any nation that does not align itself strategically to limit its negative consequences and harness the opportunities the emerging world presents and in fact, be a major determinant of its direction may be consumed in the whirlwind. This is especially germane to Nigeria which supports a rapidly growing population with an economy based entirely on fossil hydrocarbons.
Climate change has been a major issue to the world more so since the turn of the century. Its evidence and relevance are becoming more apparent by the day. Available evidence suggest that the major cause of climate change is the rise in mean global temperature occasioned by the accumulation in the atmosphere, of gases which allow heat from the sun to reach the earth but not leave it – the so-called greenhouse effect. They are therefore called greenhouse gases. The most important of these is carbon dioxide. Others include methane and chlorofluorocarbons among others. It has also been shown that this rise in the atmospheric levels of these gases is brought about by activities of man notably burning of fossil fuels, hence transport, power generation, agriculture, industrial activities among others have all been implicated in global warming. The adverse effects are already being seen in different parts of the world. Scientists have observed that the Antarctic ice cap is melting progressively, increasing the size of the oceans. Unusual floods are being experienced in different parts of the world as a result, leading to crop failures, homelessness and so on. Droughts as experienced in Kenya, Australia and other parts of the world have also been linked to this warming. Ferocious hurricanes in the US and other parts of the world are believed to have been caused by this. Back home in Nigeria, rapidly advancing desert in the north, rampaging gully erosion in the south and increasingly unpredictable weather and seasons leading to crop failures are tell tale signs. Even then, forecasts do not make easy reading. Many scientists believe that these are mere tip of the iceberg. A 2C rise in global temperature is predicted to be the tipping point when there will be extensive destruction of life and property with most of the world’s arable lands wiped out. At current warming levels, this is predicted to happen in about 50 years.
One fact many Nigerians do not seem to appreciate is the finite nature of fossil fuels. The oil being pumped took several millions of years to form and cannot therefore replenish itself at the massive rate it is being exploited. Again the picture is grim. There is no consensus on the amount of oil left in the belly of the earth. Experts seem to have tendentious views in this regard, the dividing line being support or opposition to environmentally harmful oil exploration. But then, not even the views of the optimists give much comfort. The optimists believe there are 2-2.7 trillion barrels of oil left while the pessimists think it is nearer the 1 trillion barrel mark. According to Jeremy Leggett, an oil industry expert, if there are 2-2.7 trillion barrels left in the world, the topping out point (point of maximum production after which the world cannot increase capacity regardless of demand which is inevitably followed by decline in production) lies somewhere in the 2030’s. If however, there are 1 trillion barrels left, it should occur between 2006 and 2010. Even oil industry optimists like David Jenkens, an authority in oil and gas technology, concede that the 2-2.7 trillion barrel figure is only possible if fields difficult and uneconomical to extract under current technologies are added. This picture is not helped by rising demand from emerging economies of China and India. Current global demand of oil stand at about 80 million barrels per day and the world is struggling to meet it, hence the rise in price of oil (forget the slump caused by the economic meltdown, it cannot sustain, in fact prices are on the up again). This high cost of fuel is strengthening the case for alternative fuel sources.
Population growth is another factor that is shaping the emerging world. The population of the world was 3 billion in 1970, doubling to 6 billion today. It is projected to rise by 50% to 9 billion in 2050. Nigeria is projected to be one of the countries to contribute significantly to this increase. Rising population means more demand for food, energy and other resources and as lifestyles continue to change, the amount of resources demanded by each person increases with time. In other words, 9 billion people in 2050 will exert more pressure on world’s resources than 9 billion people today, given the current rate of change in lifestyle. In fact, global warming and climate change have been attributed to the rapid increase in industrial, agricultural (fertilizers are derived from petrochemicals) and technological activities in a bid to meet the needs and changing lifestyles of world’s rapidly increasing population. Of course these activities are currently driven by energy derived from fossil fuels, hence the depletion in quantity. Demand for both energy and food are projected to rise by 50% by 2030.
These events have captured the imagination of the world and there have been responses at international, national and local levels. At international level, there have been treaties and agreements like the Kyoto Protocol, Montreal Accord among others. Countries sign the agreements and pledge to reduce emissions to mutually agreed levels within a given timeframe. Each country formulates its own policies to meet these benchmarks. Countries are not only concerned with meeting the targets, they are also developing strategies to take advantage of the opportunities the emerging world presents and limit the harm it can do to their country. The result is a flurry of activities from the west to the east. They understand that every serious nation must factor the current issues into their plans.
In Europe fuels derived from plants known as biofuels are already in use. The UK currently has legislation that all fuels must contain at least 5% biofuel. The European commission targets that in the next decade, all fuels sold must contain at least 10% biofuels. To encourage this shift, European governments are subsidizing biofuels production. This shift is not limited to Europe. According to The Times Newspaper nearly 85million tonnes of America’s maize was converted to ethanol in 2007 compared to mere 15million tonnes in 2000 to meet the rising demand for bioethanol. Former president of the United States, George Bush pushed things even further. In 2007, he called for a massive increase in the use of ethanol for energy purposes in America over the next decade. America’s total maize harvest in 2007 rose to 335million tonnes. This was achieved at the expense of soy and wheat. The result was the boom of alternative oil crops. Malaysia, a major palm oil exporter was a major beneficiary. That sector grew by 50% in 2007 and their civil servants received their first pay rise in 15 years.
These have implications on food security all over the world. According to Josette Sheeran, executive director of World Food Programme, the shift to biofuels production has diverted lands out of the food chain making food prices such as palm oil to be set at fuel prices. This pressure on Agricultural lands is not helped by the emergence of middle class in highly populated countries of China and India with rapidly growing economies demanding more meat and diary products, putting more pressure on lands as they are used for cereals production for livestock. The result of these is the spike in food prices that took hold few years ago.
Elsewhere, China, unable to source all the fossil fuels it needs to power its rapidly growing economy, is building a new coal-powered station every week attracting rebuke from the west and climate change campaigners.
At personal levels, there are several individuals and organizations campaigning for change in peoples lifestyles to save the earth. The main plank of the campaigns is to limit or if possible avoid waste of energy as energy production leads to release of carbon dioxide. One of the major voices in this is former US vice president, Al Gore in his series of lectures – The Inconvenient Truth – for which he won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2002. David Cameron, the leader of the Conservatives in Britain rides bicycle (which has zero carbon emission) and installed wind turbine in his house. Already, lifestyles are changing in the world as everyone braces for a low carbon world. The sale of smaller, low fuel consuming, more efficient, less polluting cars is rising, partly due to people buying with conscience and partly due to punishing taxes on more polluting ones. Carbon trading has been introduced in Europe where businesses are made to pay for their carbon emissions. The sale of hybrid and electric cars is rising and there are already few charging points for fully electric cars in Britain. Nuclear energy has become appealing to many countries as a clean source of energy. The low carbon future will be defined by declining influence of fossil fuels, rising demand for renewable and less polluting energy sources and high cost of food.
The question is, how does Nigeria fit into this emerging world? On the evidence on the ground, Nigeria will be overawed by it. I watched in horror as successive high ranking Nigerian government officials were bemoaning what they described as ‘Obama’s Energy Policy’. It painfully betrayed lack of understanding of current issues in the world. To be sure, Obama’s pledge to pursue renewable energy sources only aligns with current trends and realities. Developed nations including the US have been pursuing these policies since the turn of the century. The policy therefore predates Obama’s presidency. The position and apparent ignorance of Nigerian government officials is dangerous. The issues raised in this article will have profound implications for our foreign exchange earnings and survival as a nation. I dare say however that if any nation is endowed with the natural resources to be a superpower in this emerging world, it is Nigeria. Agriculture is the future source of energy. Nigeria is blessed with vast rich agricultural lands for the cultivation of jatropha used for biodiesel and cereals for bioethanol. Oil seeds like palm, groundnut and others can be produced in large quantities in Nigeria. For nuclear energy, Nigeria has vast amounts of uranium deposits. Coal is back in the picture and new technologies make them burn cleaner. Nigeria has large coal reserves.
Despite all these, optimism is not a word that can be easily associated with Nigeria especially in issues that involve investment, good leadership and patriotism. These resources, unlike crude oil are not ‘lazy’ sources of foreign exchange. The potentials are undoubtedly huge but so is our potential as an oil producing nation. Making the best of these resources involves planning, consistency, attention to details, discipline and wise investment – attributes we are not famous for. Already, our ignorance and lack of planning means we watch, nay preside over the destruction of our own environment in a period when the protection of the environment is the most urgent need of the world. Desertification is increasingly destroying arable lands in the north while gully erosion is wreaking havoc in the south. Government reaction? Continuous rise in the price, and scarcity of kerosene and cooking gas. The result is one of the world highest rates of tree-felling for firewood. In fact, firewood is rising in popularity, finding its way even into our urban areas. This destruction of our environment has not gone unnoticed by the world. A visit to Eden Project (A project dedicated to environmental sustainability) in Cornwall, UK, listed Nigeria as one of four countries that burn most firewood in the world. Even then, none of the other three is oil producing.
We must begin now to develop our agriculture and explore our renewable energy potentials. Malaysia, reaping bountiful dividends from its palm oil exports, reportedly obtained their first palm seedlings from Nigeria. Petrobras, the Brazilian state owned oil company (equivalent of our NNPC) is already leading in biofuel research and production, earning huge foreign exchange as a result. Our oil will run out sooner than we think. Denial as is currently the case will not remove these realities. The government must face them and also take advantage of the opportunities they present. NOW.
Fabian Chuma Obiora
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