As  2011 Beckons

By

Onike Rahaman

onikerahaman01@yahoo.com

 

There has been a public concern as 2011 is beckoning regarding the political future of the country. Every careful observer of the events in the political scene would subscribe to the idea that there is failure in leadership in Nigeria. This obviously creates uncertainties about the likely outcomes of 2011 elections. The fear increases when one considers imbalances in the nation’s political structure. Two years into the present administration, the masses are yet to fully reap the dividend of democracy. Oppositions are not the only ones making agitation for political reform but also the entire political class especially those that are truly committed to genuine democracy.

         

Despite the widespread discontent in the polity, most serving elected representatives, local government chairmen, governors and even presidents are being lobbied to seek for re-election. There are subtle moves by politicians to lure the incumbents towards hijacking their party machineries as a way to ensure easy ride in 2011.

         

With the present political situation in the country, there are signs that the nation is drifting towards one party state. Even in the PDP, the  party top-notchers are equally expressing concern privately about the direction in which Nigeria seems to be moving. The trend towards a one state is clear and evident. Yet, President Umar Musa Yar’adua has not been able to successfully fulfill the promise he made to carry out a genuine party electoral reform. Indeed, any reform that does not put into consideration Nigeria’s cultural plurality is bound to fail. This is the basis for people’s advocating for multi-party political system  as against one party system.

         

While acknowledging the contributions of Justice Muhammed Uwais led electoral reforms committee in giving the nation a new political direction, it would be difficult to ignore attempt to further sustain PDP hegemony by the ruling cabal despite the people's clamour for reform of the nation’s political system. It is instructive that the PDP as a ruling party is not truly interested in any reform that would make them lose political power. Nigerians should not forget that the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has vowed to hold on tenaciously to power for at least 60 years. The vow could not be taken for granted, considering the party’s antecedent. Except something drastic is done, I guess that is the minimum Nigerians expect, given the party’s penchant for vote-rigging.

         

What makes democracy the most desired system of government are continuously being destroyed by the Nigeria political elite. Indeed, the power of the ballot which is the power of the people is becoming alien to our democratic process. In 2011, when the next general elections are due, the ruling power, the PDP, will have been in power for some twelve years. The cause of people’s discontent is not actually the length of time the party has spent in power but by the blazing manner with which PDP candidates were fraudulently declared winners by the partisan electoral commission in the previous elections.

         

As people are clamouring for political reform ahead of 2011 general elections, the PDP continue to establish an almost complete dominance of Nigeria political space. So far, there is harvest of defection into PDP. In Bauchi, Sokoto and Imo States, the governors, Yuguda, Shinkafi and Ohakim who were elected on the platforms of two opposition parties, the ANPP, and the PPA, have defected to the PDP. In the case of Bauchi, all the members of the state assembly joined the governor in defecting to the PDP. It is this kind of unfolding scenario that made some political observers to conclude that the PDP is scheming to impose a one party rule in Nigeria.

         

The recent admission by Professor Maurice Iwu, the nation’s chief electoral officer that the previous general elections were characterized by irregularities further justifies the call for political reform ahead of 2011 general elections. Rather than heeding to the call for his resignation, he was expressing his readiness to conduct another round of elections come 2011. Iwu has come out to say that the electoral body is constraint by some legal and administrative bottle-necks as reasons for low credibility and poor performance of INEC in the 2007 elections. Yet, he was not honourable enough to resign as INEC chairman.

         

However, the success of the electoral reform depends on how the government could properly address the institutional disfunction of the nation’s electoral body. Of equal importance is the manner with which the national assembly handle the passing of the new electoral bill to facilitate the electoral reform.

         

In my own view, the present structure of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is such that cannot guarantee successful national election. It is worrisome that INEC is more or less a tool in the hands of the ruling elite. Hence, the need to reorganize and restructure the electoral body.

         

It is clear also that the proposal to unbundle the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), if properly endorsed by the national assembly for implementation would guarantee efficiency of the nation’s electoral body. But beyond restructuring of INEC is the role of police in subverting both the electoral and democratic processes. Quite often, the security agencies have virtually become the instrument with which the ruling party, the PDP, harass, intimidate and manipulate the electoral process. It is indeed difficult to exonerate the police of being accomplices to the past electoral fraud in Nigeria. Without re-orientating the police, the hope of having credible election come 2011 would remain a mirage.

         

Similarly, political education of the citizenry needs to be given due attention by the government ahead of 2011 general elections. To improve the electoral behaviour of the citizens, therefore, government should translate the Electoral Act 2006 into at least three major Nigerian languages for an increased accessibility. It is an incontrovertible fact that most Nigerians are unaware of the provision of the national Electoral Act. This partly explains why there is apathy among the citizens towards active political participation.

         

It is also observed that inability of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to monitor election expenses of the political parties contribute to the nation’s electoral problems. More importantly, the odious image of INEC needs to be redeemed to have an acceptable election in 2011. If Iwu and his INEC are beyond redemption, the nation had better relieved the chief electoral umpire of his job and overhaul the entire political and electoral institutions of the nation as a panacea to the nation’s electoral problems.

         

Another challenge facing the Nigeria political system is the issue of political violence. Violence has become a common feature of our political system. Partisan politicians usually employs power of coercion to secure electoral victory. Indeed, many of the Nigerian politicians gladly embrace bestiality just to secure illicit temporary advantage and as a political tactic to undermine opponents. From the past experiences, the collapse of first and second republics in Nigeria could be attributed to widespread political violence and political instability.  Unfortunately, this has eroded our political culture and value system.

           

Again, opposition seems to be ill-prepared to challenge PDP in 2011. The mass rigging of 2007 general elections has also put opposition parties in disarray. Meanwhile, the idea of mega party as currently being proposed by the opposition parties is unrealistic due to greediness, lack of organization and selfish interest of the opposition leaders. The probability is that many politicians of opposition parties are likely to find urge to defect to the PDP before the 2011 elections irresistible because virtually all other political parties have already become weak and badly divided. Hence, the need for a truly genuine electoral reform which will devoid of religious and ethnic sentiments.