When Nigeria Shall Be No More

When Nigeria Shall Be No More: Painting Scenarios

Leonard Karshima Shilgba, PhD

For a while I thought I should not waste my time writing to counsel Acting President Goodluck Jonathan. I believe that what I have counselled him to do in some of my previous articles are enough; it remains to see how he handles those pieces of advice. My focus today transcends the current distressful situation in Nigeria. Four important things must happen before a nation tears apart:

1. Total disregard for the constitution, public opinion, and visible authorities.

2. Exaltation of one part of the country over the rest in a blatant, unyielding, and unpretentious fashion.

3. Abdication of responsible duties by those constitutionally and lawfully charged with them.

4. Resistance to change in the overriding national interest by a clique, cabal, or mafia.

The four things listed above spell the acronym TEAR. There is a role that the United States of America (USA) has been playing in the past few years that convinces me that the utmost collapse of Nigeria is a strange desire of that country. A prediction by the USA that Nigeria would break up in 2015 is definitely not news. What seems to be news now is the present effort by the USA under the Obama government to make that prophecy to come to pass. I teach at the American University of Nigeria, and happen to know that Americans do not just get involved in a project outside the shores of their country without a guarantee that they would dominate. The survival of America rests firmly on their ability to successfully manipulate world affairs (including engineering false wars); control the production and distribution of needed resources such as oil around the world; and determine personalities who must occupy positions of power and influence in superficially sovereign countries such as Nigeria.

We have many Nigerians who have taken up American citizenship. Surely, they could claim that they enjoy more rights as American citizens than they could enjoy as Nigerians. But one fact is this—America will never be comfortable with a Nigerian leader whose actions or policies will steer Nigeria towards the path of genuine independence, practical leadership on the African continent, and stable true democracy. Let me give an example. Would America support a Nigerian leader who would work towards stopping the export of crude oil to any country (including the USA), and would rather locally refine and export petroleum products? Would the USA be approving of a Nigerian leader that would take steps to take the ownership of our oil industry from foreign oil companies such as Shell, Mobil, and Chevron?

American officials who have visited General Babangida and urged him to seek the office of President of Nigeria in 2011 could not have meant well for Nigeria. The reported “pressure” being mounted by America on IBB to “run” (a euphemism for being imposed on Nigeria) for the office of President of the republic could never be in the interest of Nigeria. The Americans forced Dr. Abdullah to withdraw from the re-run of the Afghan presidential elections, favouring President Karzai. I wonder whether they considered the interest of the Afghan people. If Nigeria would break up, the Americans would definitely side with the group which controls the black gold. Our redemption as a people rests in our hands and that of God.

If the Americans think that IBB’s return to power would be necessary, as reported, to restore confidence, build institutions, and provide the Nigerians with leadership, let me pose the following questions. And the Obama government should help in seeking for answers:

i. Why did Babangida stage the 1985 coup? Was he actually a drug baron?

ii. Didn’t IBB kill Dele Giwa in 1986? If so, was it not to cover up a drug-related case?

iii. Was IBB not the person that eliminated both Abiola and Bola Ige? Can the Americans claim ignorance about Abiola’s death?

iv. Did IBB not know about how General Abacha died?

v. If IBB committed the acts mentioned in i)-iv), could the Americans help impose such a fellow on Nigerians and yet claim to be a nation that respects the sanctity of life?

In 2006, I wrote in an article title “Nigerian democracy: matters arising” that I saw that none among Babangida, Atiku, Buhari, and Obasanjo became Nigeria’s president in 2007. I said that a dark horse would emerge. In fact, I saw that Babangida’s son Mohammed had died. I must say without reservation that should IBB make any attempt to regain power in Nigeria one way or the other, his end shall be like that of the biblical Ahab. A stray arrow shall pierce through his heart. Some of us have groaned for this nation; we have shed literally tears over this nation. We have also seen things about our land. Those who are playing God shall end up terribly! For the Americans, I have a word. Remember Babylon.

Whatever the conspiracy of “power brokers” in Nigeria at the expense of popular choice, their conspiracies shall break them. Mark this; the hunter shall be taken in his snare. Before Nigeria breaks up, strong regional leaders must emerge. A country that just breaks up without discernible regional leaders who are repositories of regional confidence will definitely break up further. It is not news that the Muslim-Hausa-Fulani Compound has remained the epicentre of power allocation, location, and possession in Nigeria. Since 1959, when the British colonialists, under Sir James Robertson rigged the first national legislative election in favour of the Northern Peoples Congress (NPC), the North has always maintained the edge in political contests. It is always their dominated political party that “wins” the center. And in a country where fiscal federalism has collapsed, the central power is what matters. A low level British Administrator, Harold Smith refused to comply with the directive to rig the 1959 elections in favour of the NPC, to the displeasure of Governor-general Robertson. But just like the press at the time refused to publish the truth, so also has the Nigerian press of today been guilty of silent conspiracy, hiding the egregious acts being committed by villains in power.

When preparing for peace, prepare for war. This is a largely accepted truism. Should Nigeria break up according to ethnic, economic, or political interests, there may yet be the slim chance of a loose confederacy in the future, but then, on the basis of equality, mutually beneficial interests, and mutual respect. We must start preparing for this. I propose a natural division, which closely follows the River Niger and River Benue partitions. In this case, I am referring to three countries emerging.

Benue; Cross-River; Enugu; Anambra; Ebonyi; Imo; Abia; Akwa-Ibom; Rivers; and Bayelsa would form one single country.

Kwara; Kogi; Niger; Oyo; Ondo; Ekiti; Ogun; Osun; Delta; Edo and Lagos would form one single country.

Taraba; Adamawa; Borno; Yobe; Bauchi; Gombe; Plateau; Kaduna; Nassarawa; Kano; Jigawa; Katsina; Zamfara; Sokoto; and Kebbi would make up one single country.

The Federal Capital Territory shall be commonly owned by all the three countries, with equal rights.

The above classifications are simply proposals which could be modified. It is imperative that discussions start happening at those levels of possible coalition of nationhood. After we have gone our separate ways, then at some mutually convenient time in the future, we can consider agreeable terms for a United States of Nigeria (USN).

At the moment, my moods oscillate between utmost disappointment and fascinating suspense. The former, because Dr. Jonathan appears to be shaking like a reed in the wilderness; and the latter, because I keep forcing myself to believe that there is a spring of pleasant surprise that may yet come from this amiable gentleman. I wait and watch.

Leonard Karshima Shilgba is the President of the Nigeria rally Movement (www.nigeriarally.org ) and Assistant Professor of mathematics with the American University of Nigeria.