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Chaos Theory of a Jonathan Presidency By Aliyu Aliyu Could the flap of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil set off a hurricane in Texas? Or could recent events in the political arena have an effect on the outcome of the 2011 elections? Well it’s a known fact that the flapping of a single butterfly’s wings could produce a change in the state of the atmosphere and over a period of time this negligible energy could have an enormous effect on the atmosphere or better yet something totally chaotic and unexpected could eventually happen. This sensitive dependence on historical or initial events is known as the Butterfly effect . Sometimes I wonder why the Jonathan political machine would want to risk peace and stability just to have a go at the presidency, it is very clear that 2011 term has been zoned to the North and all this wouldn’t have happened if not for the unfortunate demise of Alhaji Umaru Musa Yaradua whose sad and painful death can be likened to a deep wound that would not heal quickly and remains a tragedy to the people Northern Nigeria . After the demise of Yaradua it was natural for the Vice President, an unassuming gentleman named Dr Goodluck Ebele Jonathan to take over the reigns of power. Dr Goodluck Jonathan an Ijaw man from the South-South region of this country has had a remarkable and exciting life so far rising all the way to the top to become president of Africa’s largest Nation within a very short interval. This is not an easy task and would require an individual with remarkable ability and most of all a great deal of luck. And if at all luck was one of the factors revolving around his fast rise to power then this gentleman must be the luckiest man in the world. What’s even more amazing is that he is also lucky to be named Goodluck, so how lucky could a bloke get? In Nigerian politics just like the chaos theory there is a sensitive dependence on historical and initial events which frame better things yet to come; every action on the political chess board definitely has a reactionary effect on the state of the polity as we know it. Sometimes I wonder how an increase in the price of bread could spark off the famous bread riots of France which inevitably lead to the French revolution which also triggered revolutions throughout the European Continent. If history is anything to go by it shows that the North and the South-South have enjoyed a fruitful political alliance dating back to the period of colonial Nigera when the famous Ijaw hero and liberator Isaac Adaka Boro a native of Kaiama which is an ancient settlement in present day Bayelsa adopted the Ijaw liberation charter known as the Kaiama Decleration in an effort to to liberate the Niger Delta people from the socio-economic oppression by the then eastern regional government. At that time the Niger Delta had just become an oil rich minority of the eastern region of colonial Nigeria and the British colonialists had failed to agree on the creation of more states but managed to create a NigerDelta development Board to cater for the development of that special region. The demand of the Niger Delta Nationalists at the time was the creation of a Niger Delta region or State with economic principles in the constitution which would allow them to control the bulk of oil revenues derived from the oil produced in the area. But the board was controlled not by the indigenes but by the Governing party of the Eastern region at that time known as the National Council of Nigerian Citizens (NCNC) but the board achieved very little of its goals due to the fact that the Government of the eastern region were not interested in the creation of a new region. It was in this historical context that Isaac Boro became conscious as an Ijaw nationalist. He reasoned that with the given the balance of power in the country it would be best to go into an alliance with the Northern People’s Congress (NPC) which controlled the government of the Northern region and was a senior stakeholder in the Federal Government. In his opinion this alliance was the best and only hope for a peaceful and constitutional creation of the Niger Delta region. Not long before they had agreed on a roadmap to the creation of the Niger Delta was the Prime Minister Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa was killed and the NPC government was overthrown in the coup of January 1966. With the overthrow of his main political ally which is the NPC led government, Boro was quoted to have told his comrades “Our Prime Minister has Been Killed” there was now no alternative to liberating the Ijaw Nation but by force. The armed struggle was initiated on February 23 1966 just a few weeks into the new administration of General Aguiyi Ironsi , Isaac Boro a former police officer and his comrades in arms engaged Ironsi’s troops in the swamps of the delta in a bloody duel before eventually surrendering to the superior might of General Aguiyi Ironsi’s federal troops. When captured Isaac Boro and two of his comrades were charged with treason and sentenced to death by a tribunal. They were in custody awaiting their execution when General Aguiyi Ironsi was overthrown by Colonel Yakubu Gowon on July 29 1966. Even though their sentence was confirmed by the supreme court, the Gowon Administration refused his execution. On may 27 1967, General Gowon created Rivers State and 11 other new States. Isaac Boro, delighted about the success of the struggle wrote a letter to Gowon saying “Congratulations on your God-guided, God-protected actions. Long live Nigeria and her Head of State, long live the Ijaw and Northern Nigeria Solidarity”. Three days later the state of Biafra was declared by Colonel Chukwuemeka Odumegu Ojukwu, the military governor of the eastern region and civil war broke out. Isaac Adaka Boro and his comrades in arms were then released by the Gowon administration, Boro later joined the Nigerian Army fighting along the Federal troops in company of the men of the 3 Marine Commando under the leadership of Col .Benjamin Adekunle a.k.a THE BLACK SCORPION. Boro proved himself a brave commander who displayed uncommon brevity in face of danger and quickly rose to the rank of Major, he was unfortunately killed on May 16 1968 while trying to liberate the southern territories under Biafran control. President Goodluck Jonathan unlike Isaac Boro who is also an Ijaw man thinks differently . He is determined to rubbish the gentleman zoning agreement of the PDP which was a very thoughtful idea of the PDP think-tank by contesting for president in the coming elections. If he decides to dump this solution in the waste bin it would be wise for him to proffer another solution to the power sharing problem in the country. We all know that we are still far way from the day that Nigeria would witness free and fair elections which can hardly take place due to a lot of factors disturbing the polity. He has tried to renew the image of the electoral umpire INEC but is still taking steps that would definitely ruin the dream of a free and fair election come 2011. Some of the unfortunate steps taken by Mr president include the very tight timetable for the coming elections. With such a timetable, credible elections in 2011 will remain elusive due to the very short time required to make preparations. Based on the timetable, the conduct of party primaries will come up between September 11 and October 30, 2010; issuance of Notice of election October 13, 2010; campaign by political parties in public commences October 17, 2010; registration of voters would commence from November 1 to November 14, 2010 and display of register of voters for claims and objections would be between November 20 and November 25, 2010. Last day for withdrawal by candidates and substitution of withdrawn candidates by political parties, according to the timetable for National Assembly, is November 30, 2010; the presidential elections are to be held on December 7, 2010 and governorship and state Assembly, December 14, 2010. The timetable slated January 14, 2011 as the last day and time for campaigns for National Assembly elections; January 21, 2011 for presidential election and January 28, 2011 as the last day and time for campaign for governorship and state Assembly elections. This timetable is not feasible and could lead to a lot of lapses during the election process and such a timetable can only favor himself as an incumbent president seeking reelection. Besides, how can the voters registration exercise take place within a span of two weeks, that is not even enough time to register all the fowls and chickens in Nigeria if they were to vote. Another issue is that INEC set aside only five days for verification of voter’s registration and display of the voters register for claims and objections. Given the kind of IT infrastructure on ground in the country such a time table isn’t feasible. I remember vividly that during the 2007 elections the voters registration process had a lot of bottle necks such as lack of internet facilities in some states and remote locations where the voters registration was going on and the INEC had to rely on manual database consolidation which means that the laptops and handheld biometric devices used to capture voters registration data had to be taken to a regional center for transfer and backup on a daily basis. That means that some INEC officials had to travel two or three or four hours at the end of the day to transfer the captured data into the Voters Registration Server. Sometimes I wonder how they could store such valuable information locally on a laptop computer instead of sending the data directly to the database via the internet. This system is seriously flawed and can lead to a lot of security issues such as theft of the sensitive data. The point I’m trying to make here is that even though this information was sent via the internet two weeks isn’t enough time to register even 9 percent of the entire voters in a country of over 150 million people. Some analysts believe that the current witch hunt of governors by the EFCC and change of the Chiefs of staff was also politically motivated and seems to be another strategy of the Jonathan political machine to hold on to power at all costs. For most observers Jonathan’s contesting and winning the 2011 elections is to take by force the political term already zoned to the North. This would generate a lot of bad blood for such a remarkable personality like President Goodluck Jonathan, destroy the cordial political alliance enjoyed by the North and the South-South needless to say the risk of losing a very important ally on the political front. There is no doubt that a Jonathan presidency would definitely disturb the polity by shattering the unwritten zoning agreement put into effect by the PDP in 1999. This would seriously disturb the status quo thus creating uncertainty in the future elections. Aliyu Aliyu Istanbul, Turkey
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