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Mis-Reading The Signal Of History In Nigerian Politics By Adewale Stephen If there is anybody out there that is still nursing any doubt about the ability of the Nigerian masses to determine for themselves, then the just concluded presidential election is enough for any doubting Thomas to start believing in the ability of what the Nigeria citizens are capable of doing. Having read various comments from reputable journalists about the outcome of the Presidential Election and the destructive protest that came at the heels of the President Jonathan’s victory in some parts of the North, I came to the realization that I also should contribute my humble view on the whole scenario as well as examining the legacy that the Presidential election left behind. Some well informed public analysts have attributed the loss of the presidential candidate of the CPC, Muhammadu Buhari to the breakdown of the alliance talk between the leadership of the CPC and the ACN. For those who believe in this school of thought, CPC-ACN alliance would have given PDP a good run for their money. Of course, the ACN had come forward to present their side of the story. According to them, all their advances were rebuffed by the CPC. One is still waiting for CPC to come out to the public, either to debunk or to corroborate this ACN position. Whatever it is, some analysts are convinced that history has offered an astonished opportunity for the oppositions to rewrite the history of Nigeria. Unfortunately, they misread the vital signal of history. Beyond this sentiment, however, those analysts failed to consider the fact that the political parties as they are being operated in Nigeria are not based on the national interests but they based rather on the individual interest. Therefore, whenever the interests of various individuals that are running these parties are at stake, they always stop at nothing in order to protect it. And in a country like Nigeria where corruption remain the hallmark of politicians, it will not be easy for party leaders to form an alliance, particularly with a man like Buhari who is generally seen to be an incorruptible politician and who was likely to move against many perceived corrupt politicians. And, apart from PDP that has already been established as the nest of corrupt elements, another party that is next to them in rank in this regards is the ACN. That is, if one consider the number of formerly PDP members who have since pitched their tents with the party. Come to think of it, why is it that it was only a week to the presidential election that the ACN leadership intensified the alliance talk when it had already became obvious that the party had opened a line of communication with the then candidate Jonathan of the PDP? I also feel that the ACN went too far by asking that Bakare should step down after their swearing-in so as to pave the way for an ACN member to emerge as Buhari’s VP! I am cocksure that even the ACN leadership knew at the back of their mind that such arrangement could never work as it has never happened even in the most advance democracy less of ours that is still at the experimenting stage. ACN outrageous demand make one feel as if the ACN went to the negotiating table with the motive to deliberately foil the alliance talk even before it began. This does not mean that General Buhari too was a saint in the breakdown of this alliance. He contributed immensely to it. History presents the General a unique opportunity to tie down a deal with the ACN as far back as November last year. But for his alleged ‘ego’, the alliance talk collapsed prematurely. The lesson we can all learn from this is that as long as individual interests continued to overshadow national interests in our politics, the much expected virile and formidable alliance between all the opposition parties will continued to be a mirage. Another legacy left behind by the presidential election was the manner in which the Northern youths reacted albeit violently to the loss of General Buhari. It should be stated that destructive protests, particularly the one that involve an attempt on the lives of the people of other ethnic origin is inimical to the collective survival of Nigeria as a nation and should be roundly condemned. The beauty of democracy is that the votes of the majority always carried the day and if your preferred candidate loses in an election you must take solace in the fact that there will always be another time which offers the party other opportunity to reach out to Nigerians on how their economic programs will be beneficial to all. But looking at it from another perspective, the riots that took place across the North showed that even the Northern youths are tired of the Hausa ruling elite and by extension the Nigeria ruling elite. Some have said that the Northern youths are only agitating for one of their own to be at the helms of the country’s affair but to these people I have posed a question that why was it that nobody came out to protest in the North after the loss of Atiku Abubakar, who was then referred to as a ‘Northern Consensus Candidate’, in the PDP Presidential Primary? The simple truth is that Atiku did not represent the kind of leadership they are yearning for. But in Buhari they have illusion in a man that was capable of handling them the much expected dividends of democracy. A man who is believed to have never touched the public fund and who would not allow the corrupt ruling elite to continue in their unchecked habits of compromising the development of the North as well as that of Nigeria. They came out devotedly to vote massively for their hero: but unfortunately, the votes of the majority carried the day. The 2011 Presidential election shattered the old order of the much touted ‘monolithic North’ where the position of the Northern ruling elites was not meant to be questioned. Today, almost everywhere across the streets of the North, people are talking about the unnecessary overbearing influence of Emirs on the Northern political landscape. I also disagreed with those who tried to analyse the outcome of the election from the North and the Southern divide perspective. Afterall, Obasanjo contested elections in this country and the Yoruba refused to vote for him. For General Buhari, that he has fought a good fight is not in doubt. He has managed to remain untainted in the comity of the leaders we have had in this country. His presidential campaign showed that he was not gunning for presidency to enrich himself. He refused to compromise with the corrupt politicians in exchange for their millions which partly reflected throughout his campaign. The speech he read at a ceremony which was designed to end his campaign in Abuja last week Wednesday moved me to tears. That speech symbolized his determination to rewrite the history of Nigeria and to leave a legacy of development and good governance. That he has a place in the history of Nigeria is not in doubt but I am also appealing to him to put the loss behind him. I also appreciate the fact that he came out on Tuesday to condemn the violent protest. He should now move on to build CPC into a virile party of ideas that will be radically different from other political parties in the land and appeal to the working class of the entire country. This is imperative for his party to be a household name, not only in the North, but in the entire country. For his place in history not to be questioned, this move is necessary because even though the majority may not have voted for him but his message has been permanently noted in their hearts. But his loss also lives behind a vital lesson to our politicians: always strive to warm your way into the hearts of everybody you intend to govern. In terms of popularity and acceptability, it is obvious to the right thinkers from the onset that he might not emerge as the president. The reason for this is obvious. The General, from a time dated back to when he was the military head of state had a questionable image in the South. For instance, most people in the Yoruba land are yet to forgive him for ordering the invasion of the residence of Papa Awolowo in 1984 while his government also detained some South West governors like Lateef Jakande and Olabisi Onabanjo on allegation of corruption, even when it was obvious that these South West governors were generally regarded as less corrupt, while he allowed other governors from other regions who are perceived as the real corrupt individuals to walk freely on the streets. Although it has been said that he was not the one that was behind the ordeals of these great men, but he has not really come out to explain himself. His utterances and altercations during the Sharia tussle also worked against him. Till date, some see him as an extremist that must not be trusted with power. Rather than coming out clearly on all these allegations, the General relied on an untested classroom formula which speculated that ACN was likely to win the West and perhaps made some incursion into the South-East while the CPC would win the whole North. Under this formula, PDP was not expected to get the required 25% in 24 states. This would have enabled CPC to force the ruling party to a re-run and it was expected that at that juncture, ACN are likely to team up with the CPC to flush out the ruling party! The proponents of this school failed to consider the unresolved nationality question and the diplomatic mistrust that exists between the North Central and the Hausa Fulani. While conceding that the figures emanated from the South East must be subjected to scrutiny, I also make bold to say that the result could not have been otherwise. Even in the eve of the election, it was apparent enough that CPC’s structure was not on ground in the East. More so, the patterns and preference of voting in the East clearly indicated that PDP candidate was going to emerge a winner in the zone. For example, according to THE GUARDIAN, Sunday, April 17, 2011, the newspaper published the result of a polling unit that was monitored by its reporter in Imo State thus “…at Umundala polling unit in Orji ward, Owerri North local council, which had 1022 registered voters, PDP recorded a total vote of 1002, while ACN had 10 votes, 10 votes were declared void by the electoral officers”. What one can deduce from the above example is that if the entire registered voters could vote in a polling unit in Imo, then the general outcome of the figure recorded to PDP candidate in Imo State may not come as a surprise afterall. On a general note, however, the battle has been fought and a winner has emerged. One beauty of democracy is that it is the rule of the majority and since the majority of Nigerian voters have spoken then there is no need to dispute it. But at most times, history has proved that the decision of the majority might be wrong. Whether the majority of Nigerians are right in affirming their confidence in President Goodluck Jonathan’s ability to steer the ship of our union for another next four years will become manifest in a period of time because many people voted for him on the basis of sentiment and not on the basis of his economic programs. I was charting with an elderly man on the eve of the election on whether he would vote or not and he answered me thus; “see my son, the last time I voted was in 1993 Abiola election, but tomorrow I am going to vote for Jonathan”, When I asked him why he would vote for him, the man simply retorted ‘I just like him.’ This ‘likeness’ has been considered as the President Jonathan’s strongest point but I have argued that it is also his weakest point. When everybody likes you, including the treasury looters, then there is a problem because you will always place the interests of these people beyond other things so as not to hurt their feelings and in the long run you may have to compromise your principles. At the peak of his campaign, the President entered into series of agreement with those that have always been considered as the clogs in the wheel of Nigerians progress, whether he will place the interests of the majority of Nigerians who dared all odds to vote him above the interests of these paper weights, fading, and out fashioned politicians will be seen in the course of his administration. Finally, I have no illusion that President Jonathan’s administration will hews water out of the rock. But, just as General Buhari’s place in history will be determined by how successful he is in appealing to his youthful supporters in the North to sheath their swords and subject themselves to the decisions of the majority, President Jonathan’s place in history will also be measured on how resolute he is in ensuring that nothing hindered or distracted him from his onerous assignment, which is to take Nigeria out of the wood. That history has been kind to him is not in doubt; it is high time President Goodluck Jonathan manifested that kindness in his day to day running of the country’s affair. And when at some future date, the high court of history and public opinion shall sit in judgment as regards his loyalty to his Fatherland, his success or otherwise shall be measured on the basis of how far he is able to go in ensuring that Nigeria’s economic development and good governance will not be compromised for whatever reason in the next four years. Adewale Stephen Department of History Part IV Obafemi Awolowo University |