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Boko Haram And The Gathering Storm. Which Way Northern Nigeria By Mohammed Shehu
The 2011 elections had come and gone but the ramifications are still reverberating and reflecting on the national question. Nigeria of today is radically different from the vision of the founding fathers. Never before have uncertainties of unity, stability, security and continued existence of Nigeria as a one country become more threatened than now. It will not be an exaggeration to add, not even during the civil war, has Nigeria faced such a dreadful situation. After the recent elections, the Southerners felt a sense of triumph and expressed their elation of finally taming the beast (North) or for a better word, “getting the monkey off their backs” (this was the expression in some circles), while the feelings in the North, is that of confusion and disbelief. For others, it was a feeling of betrayal. To some the feelings are of conquered, defeated and desperation. Without a doubt, these are uncertain times. No one can predict what the short and the long term implications of all these.
I am writing this in the context of one Nigeria, looking at things from the Northern perspective as it relates to the present situation, without too much digging into history how we end up where we are today. I am writing as a concerned Nigerian, of Northern origin currently resident of the United States, although I am fully conversant of what have been happening in Nigeria for the past 13 years. I participate fully in the political process whenever I can. I also passionately follow the policies of the United States towards my country since the return to civil rule in 1999.
The United States policy, since the beginning of civil rule again in 1999 was for lack of a better word, Obasanjo centered, he was considered more like a great statesman, a savior of Nigeria who does no wrong, he had a very strong team of former Ambassadors, experts and lobbyists amongst whom were Ambassador Princeton Lyman, Andrew Young, Ambassador Carrington, Ambassador Howard Jetter, Congressman Jefferson, Ambassador Indyk etc. The problematic nature of external influences played a critical role in the 2003 and 2007 elections. The anti-Taliban dominated National Security Council (NSC) members who were Obasanjo’s allies successfully rebuffed any attempt to have any sensible policy towards Nigeria.
Shortly after, the unfortunate event of September 11, 2001, Ambassador Lyman focused his attention on Taliban, Al-Qaida and the Nigerian Muslim organizations, in a nutshell Muslim North, propagating the possibility of linkage between the Muslim organizations in Northern Nigeria and the Taliban or Al-Qaida or both. The narrative was presented as a global fight between the United States and Militant Muslims including Nigeria, against the larger interest of the United States, in a global jihad. Periodically after every ethnic conflict in Northern Nigeria that results in the loss of lives and property, he will come up with a write up of predictions and speculations for an external linkage and possible cooperation between the Northern Muslim organizations and the larger global Muslim jihadists.
All the various articles, lectures, brainstorming, back and front door diplomacy from the American experts on global terrorism, gave rise to the establishment of AFRICOM by former President Bush using executive order in February 6, 2007 shortly before living office. The main focus was the Gulf of Guinea, the Horn of Africa and North Africa, Currently only the tiny country of Djibouti has agreed to provide a Military base to AFRICOM. The summary of the commands aims and objectives are listed below according to the website... Africa Command’s activities, plans, and operations are centered on two guiding principles:
Our most important military tasks are:
The aims and objectives above appears lofty on paper but in reality, the happenings in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen and Somalia shows how aggravating the presence of external forces like the U.S. has added more destabilizing influence to an already chaotic situation. Nigeria would not be an exception.
Enter President Obama, Obama’s administration policies towards Nigeria is not radically different from the policies of the Bush Administration, there were couple of good appointments of people knowledgeable about African affairs, however some key members of the National Security council African affairs lately are protégée of Susan Rice, Rice was a Clinton appointee as Under Secretary African Affairs during the Clinton Presidency. Currently she is the United States Representative at the United Nations. Ms Rice has never hid her disdain for the North. President Obama does not have his own network of people with a different vision for Africa, he relies on the Clintons.
When President Good Luck Jonathan came to the U.S., on one of the visits, he was linked up with Mr. Joe Libby, a powerful Democratic operative with strong political ties to the Clintons, Libby’s firm was contracted to produce most of the political road map of the Jonathan’s campaign for President, including political TV and electronic advertisements.
When the Libyan Crisis broke out in February, Libby was able to utilize his contacts with the Clintons effectively, by working behind the scene to lobby the Obama administration to support Jonathan during the elections and focus on the Niger Delta oil and gas resources, as some form of guarantee against the uncertainty of the Libyan oil supply line.
Mr. Libby made it very clear, Jonathan has to be helped to become president and the elections certified as credible, no matter what happens, this was carried out after the elections with the White House certifying the elections as credible. The plausible rationale for this may be that, the United States could extract favorable deals in oil and gas and at the same time tame the North. This is the strategic interest of the United States.
The opposition to President Jonathan’s election never saw it necessary to engage the United States or to make its case, even though Jonathan has resources at his disposal, all the same, a case has to be made to the U.S. policy makers inside the U.S, no representation was sent before the elections nor any vigorous concerted efforts was made.
Soon after the October 1st Abuja bombing, President Jonathan came out immediately and blamed his political opponents (Northerners) against all available evidences, similarly other spate of bombings and criminal activities were hastily blamed on Boko Haram. The new “boogie” on the block now is Boko Haram, every other crime is quickly attributed to them, and it appears they perfectly fit with a larger political agenda.
MEND (Movement for the Emancipation of Niger Delta) has been the only militant organization that has received training and financial support from external sources namely Libya and internal support from local politicians, governors and serving military personnel from the South South region, including the current National Security Adviser(NSA) General Azazi.
Since the appointment of General Azazi as the NSA, it is a known fact that the general security situation in Nigeria has worsened. It would be recalled, couple of days after the police headquarters bombing, the Inspector General (IG) and NSA were at the United States. General Azazi was reported to have shared with the Americans, information linking Boko Haram to AQIM (Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb). Azazi seized the opportunity to request for a counter terrorism help, training and financial support from the United States Authorities.
It is doubtful if General Azazi may have credible information linking Boko Haram to AQIM or Al Shabaab, but the situation perfectly sits well with the US hawks bent on establishing a linkage to achieve their aim of fighting Global Jihadists. It could be also a larger Niger Delta complicity to further discredit the North in the eyes of the U.S. to deny the North any future aspirations for the highest leadership position ever or as some people in the inner cycle of the presidency were rumored to be allegedly setting a stage for eventual break of Nigeria.
Last Year there was a high-level meeting at the headquarters of AFRICOM in Stuttgart Germany where experts on Nigeria were invited to speak about Nigeria, another discussion was also held this year in Washington DC, it was at that meeting that an aid to General Carter F Ham the commander of AFRICOM was quoted “to have stated that his boss was excited to have found a linkage between Boko Haram and AQIM,” this was probably based on what General Azazi shared with the U.S. side. Another high level meeting is scheduled for October this year. While Congressional committee will discus Boko Haram with two well known experts on Nigeria late September this year.
Couple of days before the unfortunate bombing of the Abuja UN building, Gen. Carter F Ham, head of AFRICOM, flew to Nigeria to meet with the Millitary High Command of Nigeria and was quoted to have told Associated Press that multiple sources had indicated links between Boko Haram and Al-Qaida or its franchises, AQIM or Al Shaabab in Somalia. He also said that cooperation between Boko Haram and al-Qaida “would be the most dangerous thing to happen not only to the Africans, but to us”. General Ham was said to have been given full cooperation by the Nigerian Military Command structure particularly the NSA.
On August 16, 2011 The New York Times, in a front page story by Adam Nossiter titled “ ISLAMIST THREAT WITH QEADA LINK GROWS IN NIGERIA---ALARM SHOWN BY WEST” was published, the last time Nigeria made front page news was probably after the death of Gen Abacha or the Obasanjo’s swearing in 1999. In the story Borno Governor, Kashim Shettima was quoted to ask rhetorically “where are they getting this knowledge of I.E.D’s?” he added “Some of them went as far as Sudan. Why? I believe they are making efforts to reach out to global terrorism network”. Gov Shettima probably spoke out of ignorance, because he lacks the knowledge of intricate delicate international political chase games. In the story General Ham was also quoted. Some days later the UN building was bombed, immediately accusing fingers were pointed at Boko Haram both in the U.S. and Nigeria.
Boko Haram may or may not be responsible for the Abuja U.N building bombing but knowledgeable experts believed it may have been a retaliation ordered by Col Muammar al-Gaddafi against Nigeria’s foreign policy towards his regime. If true, it is doubtful if Boko Haram was the vehicle for the execution of the Bombing. The only terrorist organization with training, capability and experience is the MEND. Boko Haram has never attacked, kidnapped any foreign interest or entity, why now?
The situation as it is, is a potential dynamite if the trend continues, I don’t have to state here the full political, economic and the security implications of all these to Northerners in particular and to Nigeria in general. The last thing we need is to be labeled as “TERRORISTS” in a region where poverty, disease, lack of education and the fact that we are in the bottom of every indices of human development.
It is very likely the Boko Haram will be used as a witch hunting tool at best, to deny Northerners positions in the Army, Navy, Air force, the security services and the Federal civil services on the excuse of sympathy to Boko Haram or at worst outright dismissal or retirement from the services.
At Present the Northern intellectuals of the caliber of late Dr Mahmmod M Tukur, Dr Yusufu Bala Usman, Dr Bashir Ikara, Dr Iyorchia Ayu, Dr Tahir etc are not visible anywhere in the North. Even journalists in the caliber of Malam Mamman Daura, Malam Adamu Chiroma, and Late Turi Muhammad, Late Aminu Abdullahi, broadcasters in the mould of Adamu Augie, Yusufu Turundu, and James Audu are simply not available anymore. There is an intellectual vacuum in many areas of human endeavor in the North today. I am not sure enough grooming had been done over the years to mould younger Northerners for the task of building the North and by extension Nigeria.
What do we do at present? Some of you have valuable experiences which you can bring to bear, before it is too late. The starting point is to educate and enlighten our representatives across the spectrum, our religious and other leaders, for them to be aware. This awareness has to be across political and religious lines. Then, a strategy brainstorming session has to be convened to chart a way out.
There has to be a united North again, if that will not be achieved, then it becomes easier to further divide and weaken us more. We must get to the bottom of the never ending recurring ethno-religious crisis and conflicts in the North immediately. Simultaneously, we can start by concentrating on Agriculture, Education, Security and infrastructures within the entire Northern region. Every reasonable responsible Northerner has to be involved. Current leaders in the North must step up to the plate and face these daunting challenges.
In the area of Diplomacy, the Northern Political establishment had a historical alliance with the British political establishment before independence and after independence. However, with the second coming of Obasanjo, he understood clearly the political, economic and military power is the United States and he gravitated aggressively towards the U.S. United Kingdom was left with no option but to shift and dumped the North for the new reality, thus reinforces the notion “that there are no permanent friends or enemies in politics but only permanent interests.” The northern leadership failed to see the situation and also shift ground in establishing contacts and linkages in the United States.
Currently very few Northerners have an understanding of the inner workings of the United States and its policy towards Nigeria. There are virtually no Northerners of significance that can influence policy in the United States, within the United States among the very few Northerners that are in the United States, The situation with Southerners is different, they are in foundations and academia with a strong network of talents; not in the service of Nigeria but in the service of their respective ethnic or regional agendas.
The Diplomatic officers from the North sent to the U.S. are in general with few exceptions have very little understanding of how policies are influenced. Some simply have their own agenda. When you draw their attention to certain things that needs their attention they ignore you. We need to have younger people to be sent to the United States to pursue degrees and graduate degrees in the field of Humanities, so that they could be trained and learn the language of the U.S. and also establish networks that could be of help to the North years to come. This was the strategy Sardauna employed before and after independence by sending Northerners to study in the United Kingdom then, this is an achievable goal at the present.
In Conclusions, this is the time to look at all the likely possible scenarios, which may play out over the coming years, the storm is gathering momentum. We have to look at every possible situation and ask questions, and attempt to provide possible answers, even if committees and think tanks needs to be established now, the urgency is now. Some questions that need to be considered are numerous for example, what is the likely fate of the North at present and in the future? How can the North restore her lost glory? How do we become united again? How do we restore trust again? How do we restore our self confidence? Will Nigeria remain as one Country? What are the prospects of 2015? Are we ever likely to have free, credible and fair elections where the true representatives of the people emerge? Why are we reactive not proactive or strategic? What is the agenda of the President and his men towards the North and Nigeria? What is the South west stand (Yoruba)? What about the South east (Igbo’s)? What about the Northern minorities or Middle belt? What about the South south? If Nigeria were to break apart, how is the North going to get goods from the outside world? What form or shape, violent or peaceful? Are we prepared? All these questions and many more beg for answers and frank discussions. The time is now. I can be reached by e-mail or telephone if and when needed. |