|
Open Letter to Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu on 2015 Agenda By Salihu Moh. Lukman
Sir,
You will recall that few days ago, I sent an open letter to Gen. Muhammadu Buhari regarding his speculated aspiration to contest the 2015 presidential elections. My decision to write the letter to Gen. Buhari was premised on a report of Gen. Buhari’s response to a delegation of CPC members who paid him a visit. Since that report, there have been clarifications to the effect that Gen. Buhari only re-affirmed his commitment to politics and did not declare for the 2015 elections. It is however clear from the clarifications that whether Gen. Buhari will contest or not, is open, and would be determined as we approach the 2015 elections. The fact that the matter is open therefore made the issues I raised in my open letter still very valid. It is in fact even more valid given the strength of support for Gen. Buhari to contest the 2015 election.
Following the responses to my open letter to Gen. Buhari, I discover that any effort to engage our political process based on a focus on one key actor will be ineffective and may only serve to reinforce existing mindsets. The existing mindsets, as far as our polity is concerned, are basically regionalist, ethnicist and laden with religious dosages. This reality impedes national cohesion and undermines our political progress. When I wrote to Gen. Buhari, I did so as a respectful son who admires the General's courage, sense of patriotism and commitment to the progress of Nigeria, although not to the point of being in the same party or even voting for him in the 2011 elections. My approach was to, as much as possible to use persuasive, convincing and logical reasoning to present my position. It is my hope that this letter will also be viewed to have adopted the same approach.
If you follow the public responses in many blogs and websites on the Internet, you will find that notwithstanding my polite approach, the letter has evoked emotions and sentiments on both sides, understandably so. This is because the General is truly loved by our ordinary citizens, especially my Northern siblings. Sincerely speaking, on reflection, I am happy I wrote the letter, I am happy I made it open and I am feel very fulfilled that I followed my inner feelings in avoiding to consult before releasing the letter. Responses of close associates immediately they received the letter were to discourage circulation of the letter. Today, I am very happy that the letter has stimulated public discussions on what needs to be done as we move towards 2015.
In the process, the role of our General is receiving critical considerations. It is my hope that our General is monitoring the debate and evaluating both critiques and admirers with the objective of providing leadership to our political struggles as a nation desirous for change. One issue that has featured in virtually all the responses is your (Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s) role during the last elections. Many respondents have cited the failure of the General in the last elections and the victory of Jonathan Goodluck as the result of the failure of the opposition parties to unite. In particular, the failed alliance between the ACN and CPC was also cited. Hardly any mention of ACN is made without reference to your person and your perceived role.
Like you very much know there are all sorts of stories and insinuations about a possible conspiracy theory based on the poor results of the ACN and the good results of PDP in the South West during the 2011 presidential elections. As a member of ACN who is privileged to know the true account, I can dismiss all these allegations. Unfortunately, that will not change the mindset of many people who hold that opinion largely because reasons and logic are not important. I am sure, in the same manner my letter to Gen. Buhari has evoked emotions and sentiments, this letter to you is also bound to receive the same response. In the end, it is my hope that every response contributes to a new pathway for our democracy and our nation.
I therefore find it necessary to also address you in the same manner I addressed our General. In sending you this letter I am conscious of the fact that unlike our General, I have access to you and could reach you and privately share with you my point of view. Effective as this may be, it will not do justice to the process, given that I could have actually accessed our General through close associates and share with him my views without going public. This approach would have denied the public the opportunity to engage the issues in the way they are being engaged now. Besides, there is no guarantee that the view of an inconsequential Salihu would carry any weight to influence the disposition of Gen. Buhari or your very self. Since I made my views open to Gen. Buhari through the public, it therefore demands that I remain consistent with respect to issues around your role as we move towards 2015.
In addition, I am conscious of the fact that I am a member of the ACN and could use structures of the party and my relationship with other leaders of the party to push my point of view. To do so may require longer time by which time some political mileages would have been lost. In writing this letter, I am aware of all the risks but one need to take them with the hope that the public debate around the roles of our leaders and how that will influence their actions in shaping the roadmap towards 2015, will eventually justify what could be termed as my overzealous approach.
Like I indicated in my letter to Gen. Buhari, I am a Nigerian citizen from the North, born in Zaria, and, to add, some 49 years ago. I was privileged to witness the Second Republic first hand. In fact, I was a Polling Clerk during the 1979 elections. I can say with confidence that I witnessed the vibrancy and dynamism of that period. One of the things that have stuck in my mind was the debate around the Progressive Peoples Alliance and the possibility of forming the Progressive Peoples Party with the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN), Nigerian Peoples Party (NPP), Great Nigeria Peoples Party (GNPP) and the Alh. Balarabe Musa and Alh. Abubakar Rimi faction of the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP). It is still very fresh in my mind how that debate had progressed to the point of public speculations around possible combinations of the then serving State Governors as presidential flag bearers of the alliance and the expected party (PPP).
A major speculation was how the alliance and the birth of the new party would result in the leaders of the parties taking a backseat in the 1983 elections. Some of the permutations include combination of UPN/NPP and PRP/GNPP Governors as Presidential candidate and running mate. Notable among the Governors were Chief Lateef Jakande of Lagos State and Chief Bola Ige of Oyo State, for the UPN. The NPP had Chief Jim Nwobodo of Anambra State, Late Chief Sam Mbakwe of old Imo State and Chief Solomon Lar of old Plateau State. The PRP had Alh. Balarabe Musa, then impeached Governor of old Kaduna State and Alh. Abubakar Rimi of old Kano State. The GNPP had Alh. Mohammadu Goni of old Borno State and Late Alh. Abubakar Barde of old Gongola State.
Unfortunately, neither the alliance nor the merger worked out before the 1983 elections. The result of that election and the purported National Party of Nigeria (NPN) landslide victory is now history. One of the reasons for the failure of the alliance and the merger that could be deduced might be the inability to persuade late Chief Obafemi Awolowo of the UPN, late Chief Nnamdi Azikiwe of the NPP and late Alh. Waziri Ibrahim of the GNPP to appreciate the need for the alliance as a necessary condition for the electoral victory of the opposition and to that extent envisioned a different role for them apart from contesting for the presidential election.
I go down this memory lane, to strengthen my argument that Gen. Buhari should not contest the 2015 elections, not just for the reasons I canvassed in my letter to the General but also to avoid the repeat of history as was the case in 1983 and very recently too in 2003, 2007 and 2011. However, I think in addition, one needs to also bring to the fore other factors that would make a potential alliance/merger of opposition parties in Nigeria possible. One of such factors is your (Asiwaju Bola Tinubu) critical role as clearly evident in the responses of Nigerians to my open letter to Gen. Buhari.
There is no way we can discuss any possible role for Gen. Buhari without considering your role. This is because you are today no doubt recognized as the most influential leader of ACN and the political brain box of South West politics. Unlike Gen. Buhari however, you are a product of democratic struggles and you are not as privileged as the General in ruling the country. However, like Gen. Buhari whose influence is more in the Northern parts of the country, your influence and authority is greater in the South West. The fact that you were part of the leadership of the pro-democracy struggles and campaigned against military dictatorship between 1993 and 1998, it can be argued that you and Gen. Buhari share the commonality of commanding battalions and regiments of the Nigerian peoples army. In the case of Gen. Buhari he led the battalion and regiment of the Nigerian army for the unity of the country. What differentiate the two battles was simply that you together with other patriotic Nigerians organized an unconventional peoples’ resistance and led a successful nationalist civil struggle, Gen. Buhari was part of the Commanders of the regular armed forces of the Federal Republic of Nigeria that successfully fought for the unity of Nigeria.
Today, history, experience and our political reality has bestowed on the two of you the political leadership of the opposition in Nigeria. Your ascendancy as one of the leaders of the opposition is the result of your steadfastness and dodged political maneuvering. You emerged irrespective of PDP offensive and electoral fraud. Among all the Alliance for Democracy (AD) Governors in the South West between 1999 - 2003, you are the only one that succeeded in completing two terms of four years each as provided in our constitution. Between 2003 and 2007, you were the only AD Governor in the South West. By 2007, you were able to provide leadership to people of the other 5 states in the South West to start the process of reclaiming the region from the shackles of PDP. Although, the PDP, as expected, fraudulently attempted to cling onto these states, 3 states of the South West were reclaimed legally from electoral tribunals. These were Ondo, Ekiti and Osun. In addition, with your support, Edo State was also liberated from the rule of PDP.
Two of the remaining South West states, namely Ogun and Oyo were finally reclaimed in 2011 from the PDP. Now, with our party, the ACN controlling 5 of the six states and the possibility that the sixth state, Ondo which is controlled by the Labour Party will eventually be taken over by the ACN in 2013, your political mission of reclaiming the South West completely back to our party, the ACN South West reclamation project would have been consummated. Having therefore accomplished this mission, what next? Are you going to remain in the South West and wield your influence on our polity from there or you will move across the Niger to the North, East and South and seek to export your political acumen and dexterity in a way that would produce the empowering and liberating result capable of defeating the PDP in 2015? If you decide to move across the Niger to the North, East and South, will you be driven by personal agenda of aspiring for the presidency of our great nation, or will you be doing so in a selfless way as a statesman?
If events and speculations are any reference, it would appear that the former would be more the case. Should this happen it would blur objective reasoning, hinders negotiation with other opposition parties and potentially sabotage mergers and alliances, resulting in a strong probability for the return of PDP in 2015. The potential consequence of such an exercise would be an increase in the number of failed presidential candidates, candidates that by every measure are our nation’s best, yet defeated by a distant incomparable PDP candidate whether in the person of President Goodluck Jonathan or any other known PDP leader today. This will be a frightening projection and can only add to the frustration of Nigerians. It is bad enough that we will have to leave with a PDP government that has proved to be incompetent and incapable of governing our diverse nation with our multifaceted problems for another 3 years. Short of stronger word, it will be a tragedy to have a PDP government up to 2019.
If accounts of the failed alliance between the ACN and CPC of 2011 are anything to go by, one of the factors that account for the inability to contract an agreement was the perception, rightly or wrongly, of your personal agenda. While it is my belief that it also reflects problem of low confidence on the other negotiating opposition parties, I also think that you need to do something to boost the confidence of Nigerians that you are truly a nationalist. My suspicion is that unless this factor is addressed, trust between the CPC and ACN, between Gen. Buhari and yourself and above all between Nigerian people and yourself will be weak and alliance and merger negotiations will be feeble.
How do you boost the confidence of Nigerians? This is a difficult task. However some of the parameters would include how together with other ACN leaders you are able to restructure party governance in ACN. At the moment, with all sense of responsibility, party governance in ACN is not systemic, especially at lower levels of the party structures. Since the end of the 2011 elections, activities of the party in most states outside the South West and Edo is on recess. In the case of Kogi and Adamawa there was some high momentum around the gubernatorial elections. For Adamawa, it was clear that the party at national level was not conscious of the electoral strength of the party until it was too late. In fact, even media organizations controlled by interests that are in the party were completely ignorant of the strength of the party.
The only reason this was so was the disconnect between the party leadership and realities in our states. This is on account of poor party management, weak governance and care free disposition on the part of our leaders. It was this care free disposition that made me to argue that my national leaders prefer to live in their comfort zones in my letter to Gen. Buhari. It may also be as well a reflection of low confidence and trust regarding information provided by functionaries of the party and how the information facilitates decision making in the right direction.
Related to the above is the fact of poor party management and weak governance, state governments controlled by the party are not guided by strong party programmes and policies. Each of the six state governments respond to challenges of governing their states based on the foresights of the Governors. It is difficult, if not impossible, to find a thread that connect the six states governed by our party in terms of policies and projects. The closest is the commitment to free education, which could be argued as being inspired by a conscious effort to appropriate the Awo legacy of free education. This needs to be strengthened by clear and unambiguous party commitment.
To further buttress the above argument, our legislators in the National Assembly are not in anyway guided or regulated by the party. Engagement between the party leadership and members is irregular and in most cases members are left with their initiatives. If an audit of the conduct of our members in the National Assembly is to take place, there is no guarantee that many of them will not be as guilty, if not more guilty, than PDP legislators. One glaring result of such an audit would highlight the fact that our party representatives in both the two chambers don’t even vote as a block.
Talking of audit and party governance, some two weeks ago, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) released audit report of political parties, including our party, ACN. By the media report, the PDP appear to be more accountable and transparent than our party. INEC accused our party of not keeping proper accounting books. In addition, INEC accused our party of not having annual budget. I am yet to see a public rebuttal of the INEC audit report from our party. As a loyal member of the party, I must be honest to confess that I am scandalized and everything needed to correct this image is required.
Let me quickly point out that, perhaps if I am from the South West, I may not be challenged as a politician to take this approach of writing to Gen. Buhari and now yourself. Perhaps, I may be pre-occupied with managing other responsibilities that may not allow me to envision the need for these letters. Being from the North and with my experience during the last election as a privileged candidate of our party for Senatorial seat, I know how futile elections will be in the absence of a united opposition. I am certain that if we as the opposition parties are not united, current regional, ethnic and religious divides will continue to dominate our politics and in the circumstances, opposition presidential candidates will record poor electoral outcomes, no matter the magnitude and echo of our support.
I have no doubt in my mind if there is good party management system and strong and effective governance, some of these issues will not require any public attention. This letter may even not be needed and there would have been guaranteed strong connection between party structures and membership on account of which our leaders can gauge the pulse of members and design responses and initiatives covering wide range of problems, including elections and our candidates.
In any event, who are the possible candidates for our party for 2015? Things remaining unchanged, our party will be one of the strongest opposition parties. The second strongest opposition party being the CPC. For the CPC, the truth is that Gen. Buhari is the party's live wire. He is the party's live wire more as a presidential candidate because that way, his teaming supporters will be animated electorally. Just study most of the responses to my letter to Gen. Buhari and you can not but appreciate that. In fact, there are many people who argued that the absence of Gen. Buhari as a candidate will demobilize them from voting. This is where the problem lies. Many of these people hardly understand the scheming of other terrible politicians who engineer a situation where our loved Gen. Buhari, with all his patriotism and integrity become surrounded by crooks and rogues who are only interested in their electoral victory. It is these same politicians who are bound to poison the mind of the General about your (Tinubu) motives and block processes of negotiations. To be fair to many of them is to recognize their lack of consciousness about the electoral consequence for Gen. Buhari’s electoral failure. They are however very conscious and steadfast about their own small electoral design, partly because they are dealing with a narrow constituency.
For the ACN, the situation is different and completely open. Partly because it is open but more importantly because we are a nation that hardly witness selflessness and commitment in anyway without the element of bias, it is almost impossible to imagine an Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu without an aspiration. The result is the question of what is your interest. The speculation about your presidential ambition is a response to this question. And because of your increasing national visibility, the speculation is stronger by the day. While I am not in a position to engage in probability debate on this matter, I can tell you that a practical response to this question is what can be regarded in mathematical term as the factorial determinant, which influences the result of negotiations between and among opposition parties towards 2015. It is a factorial because any attempt to continue to ignore it will strengthen suspicion around your motive and to that extent impede negotiations. To answer it positively, i. e. that you are going to contest for the president under the ACN is to strengthen the perception of ACN as a South West party. Interestingly, I will further argue, this does not rub on another South West person as a presidential candidate because depending on the factors that facilitates the emergence of such a candidate, he/she may not be perceived as a regional flag bearer.
To answer the question negatively would be to find another person to serve as the party's flag bearer. This is one scenario that is not new and you and the party had experience because you were able to look the other way and head hunted Mal. Nuhu Ribadu and invited him to be the presidential candidate of the party. While not suggesting in anyway that Mal. Nuhu Ribadu be retained as the party's flag bearer, I will strongly recommend you combine the experience of head hunting and your combative and dodged skills and go into negotiations with Gen. Buhari with an open mind and in good time.
A major responsibility that lies ahead of us in accomplishing this has to do with the need to boost public confidence in our party and our leaders. One issue that is very potent is the issue of managing processes of the emergence of the party’s flag bearers. This is a matter that raises questions around how some of our best public office bearers were sacrificed during the 2011 elections. A typical example is the case of Sen. Olorunnimbe Mamora who was shuffled with Sen. Remi Tinubu, your wife. This example alone could have been avoided if there is a good party management system and strong and effective governance with good measure of democratic control. The reality also is that, public perception of the decision to shuffle Sen. Mamora would have been different if the beneficiary is not Sen. Remi Tinubu. Besides, if through your immense influence, the party could take such a decision in favour of Sen. Remi Tinubu, it will be valid to anticipate a possible emergence of an Asiwaju Bola Tinubu presidential candidate.
Apart from the issue of Sen. Mamora, there is the speculated tension between you and Mr. Babatunde Raji Fashola, the current governor of Lagos state, a person that is adjudged to be the best model in service delivery. As a member of ACN, I can say, he is our pride. In the build up to the 2011 elections, there was high speculation that you were working to block his re-emergence as the party’s flag bearer for Lagos state. Happily, the promoters of this speculation were disappointed by the emergence of Fashola as the party’s flag bearer with your support. However, with reported encounters between you and Fashola during your 60th birthday colloquium where you were reported to have told Fashola that “if there is no partiality, you cannot be governor yourself” on account of Fashola’s appeal to you on behalf of lower cadre members of the party to the effect of calling on you to dispense “justice and equality” to all members, the tension between you and Fashola cannot be simply dismissed as mere speculation. As far as I am concerned your response is harsh and as party members, we need to publicly appeal to you to moderate yourself as part of the public confidence building measure.
While unlike the Gen. Buhari speculated presidential candidate, in your case, it is not yet publicly manifest. It is nevertheless important that steps are taken to pre-empt it in the interest of our democracy, our party, our nation and our children. Moving forward therefore, I will strongly recommend to you that you provide inspirational leadership to our party with a primary focus of uniting opposition parties in Nigeria similar to what happened in nearby Senegal during the last elections. With Gen. Buhari providing the same inspirational leadership for CPC, the task of restoring hope for our ailing nation will be accomplished.
As the inspirational leaders of the two major opposition parties, CPC and ACN, Gen. Buhari and yourself can kick start a negotiation process that would define both the qualities of the opposition presidential candidate, broad campaign programmes and above all orientation of the new government covering issues of policies and programmes and appointment procedures.
This way, both Gen. Buhari and yourself would lay the foundation that would reconfigure Nigerian politics and current politicians would have to respond to the challenge of either having to change or completely get kicked out. This is what every Nigerian is looking for. Should this happen, I am sure the polity will be animated beyond the current narrow debate arround revenue sharing to substantive issues of governance agenda and service delivery. In which case, ethnic, sectional and religious champions would have to re-orient their relevance. It is also possible that on account of the new opposition strategy, the current PDP government under Jonathan would in order to brighten its electoral prospect take some positive initiatives to minimize or reduce the current collosal waste of resources including human life.
This will in so many fundamental ways transform both Gen. Buhari and yourself into national heroes beyond the standing of any other person in our history. It is very painful that as a nation that invested heavily in the liberation of Africa, today we are yet to produce a nationally recognized hero that is respected in the same strength by all sections of the country. Gen. Murtala Ramat Mohammed is the closest but even then he was only a martyr. Negotiating the emergence of a united opposition based on personal sacrifice of the two of you (Gen. Buhari and yourself) will definitely mean that you have surpassed the achievements of Mal. Aminu Kano, Chief Obafemi Awolowo, Chief Nnamdi Azikiwe and all their contemporaries. This may even equate the two of you (Gen. Buhari and yourself) to the status of Nelson Mandela or at the least Julius Nyerere and Kwame Nkurumah in Africa.
There would be the temptation to argue that all these people were once Presidents of their countries. That is true. Accordingly, it could be argued that Gen. Buhari being a one time Head of State had a brighter prospect of rising to their status. However, it is important to appreciate that the opportunity to produce a national hero out of our democratic process as a result of the person serving as a President has been squandered largely by President Obasanjo. Obasanjo would have naturally satisfied that requirement had he not militarized our political process and downgraded our parties into garrison formations. As a nation, we must be grateful to Gen. Buhari for rising to the challenge of combating Gen. Obasanjo's garrison formations since 2003. We must also be grateful to you (Tinubu) for injecting hope in all Nigerians that it is possible to defeat PDP. The danger is that if as citizens we don't engage the two of you, you will not take the right steps and the nation will continue in the shackles of PDP.
Finally, I want to stress the point that I am making this letter open because I want Nigerians to engage our leaders and exert pressure on all of them to give us the very much needed democratic leadership and facilitate the defeat of PDP in 2015. This is about loyalty to the nation and our people which is superior to party loyalty. In doing this, it is my hope that other Nigerians would appreciate this challenge and form pressure belts both within political parties, in our media, in the many blogs and Internet websites and among trade unions, civil society groups and our religious bodies. We need to stop lamenting and take concrete actions including personal sacrifices. As one of our influential leaders, we call on you to model the way! |