Strategy on how to contain Obasanjo

Strategy on how to contain Obasanjo's objective of marginalising the north

Mohammed Haruna

1. BACKGROUND

Inspite of the overwhelming support the north gave President Obasanjo, he set out deliberately from the word go to damage the region, presumably in retaliation for his apparent humiliation by the late General Sani Abacha. At the same time that he tried to damage the North, he went out of his way to appease his home region, the South-West, which overwhelmingly rejected him in 1999.

As the next presidential election approaches he seems to be remorseful and has even promised to redress the untold damage he has admittedly done to the North. The question is, can he be trusted to honour his pledge?

Before answering the question, it is useful, even imperative, to catalogue the damage he has done to the region.

His retirement of so-called political soldiers and of senior civil servants as one of his first acts on assuming power, was essentially targeted at the North.
His recruitment policy into the armed forces, the police and other security services was targeted at further weakening the North.
He has deliberately refused to adequately fund agriculture upon which the North and the whole country depends for over 40% of its Gross Domestic Product.
He has blown hot and cold over Sharia but on the whole he has been against it.
He has neglected to maintain roads in the region, not to talk about building new ones.
His energy policy, especially the provision of electricity, has been aimed at damaging the region’s economy. For example hydroelectric sources of electricity, which is abundant in the north, has been neglected in favour of gas as a source.
He has set out deliberately to empower Yoruba elite at the expense of the elites of other sections of the country, particularly those of the North.
He has not invested sufficiently in the exploitation of solid minerals.
He has used religion deliberately to divide the North.

II. OBASANJO’S REMORSE

As we approach the presidential elections next month, the president has admitted his hostility to the region and has promised to redress the damage he has done. Would he keep his promise? Can he?

His record to date suggests the region should be cautious about accepting his word at face value.

He went back on his 1998 promise to be fair to the region in return for its support and boasted openly about going back on the promise.
During the heat of the impeachment threat against him, he dragged in former Head of State, General Yakubu Gowon, and President Shehu Shagari to intervene on his side, which they did. However, he dishonoured the pledges he gave them that he would honour certain legitimate demands of the National Assembly, in return for their intervention. He did so as soon as he realized the threat was receeding.
He knows the role several of our leaders, including Vice President Atiku Abubakar, played in nearly scuttling his re-nomination for a second term. There are indications that once he returns he may seek his pound of flesh for their roles; already some articles in the Tribune and The Comet, two leading Yoruba papers, are questioning Vice-President Atiku Abubakar’s claim that his decision, in the end, to support his boss was crucial of the president’s renomination.

In the light of these points alone, he is unlikely to keep his promise. But even if he does, it will takes more than 4 years to repair the tremendous damage he has done.

III. BUHARI AS AN OPTION

For now the North’s best option of repairing the damage done by Obasanjo is for the region to mobilize itself behind Buhari. The key strategy is persuasion not intimidation. To achieve the objective of the mobilizing the region and the rest of the country behind the former head of state, the Northern leadership needs to do the following:-

Pursue genuine reconciliation between Buhari and IBB and all other leading Northerners Buhari once offended.
Alhaji M.D. Yusuf, as the presidential candidate of his party, the MDJ, should be prevailed upon to step down as the chairman of ACF. Although he is within his right to stand for election, it is immoral for him to continue as chairman of ACF’s CWC in the light of ACF’s disposition towards a consensus candidate for the region.
Buhari’s close aides must jettison their politics of self-righteousness and play the politics of inclusiveness. IBB and others who should be reconciled with Buhari, should send representatives to Buhari’s campaign organisation.
Buhari should seek reconciliation with the leading Igbo politicians who boycotted the ANPP primaries, in particular Mr. John Nwodo and Chief Ume Ezeoke.
Buhari may enter into a secret electoral alliances with Jim Nwobodo and Ike Nwanchukwu to strengthen his support in South-East. This is not too late.
He should seek the support of the South-South by committing himself to raising the minimum derivation percentage anywhere between 15-20% with a further commitment to review the constitutional provision against concessions to coastal states on offshore oil.
Long term, the North should cease its opposition to national conference. Instead it should support it with a view to going back to the 1963 constitution modified in the light of our experience since the First Republic.

IV. WHAT IF BUHARI LOOSES?

· The region must form a formidable opposition in the National Assembly and outside it.