Options Before the North

By

Abubakar Jika

jikaab@yahoo.com  

As 2003 inches nearer and more political parties got registered the political options for the North shrink. This is ironic. In politics when you have a widen democracy space by getting more political parties to choose from, it is expected that you have more options to juggle around. Sadly for Northern Nigeria, this appears not to be so.

There are many that wager, that since two of the three registered political parties appear to have "Northern roots", then the north - as usual - scheme to widen its options. This should so under normal circumstances, and in normal chimes are so. But ours is not. What do I mean? To answer this question, we need to pose another more decisive one: what does the North really want in 2003? Before delving into this very controversial and disputed subject, what is "Northern Nigeria"?  Is there even a "Northern Nigeria" Let us start with the agreeable to the disputed. Yes, there is an area, a geographical area called "Northern Nigeria". It shares to some degrees geographical and climatic conditions. The area also has a history of being administered as one political and administrative unit for closed to 60 years by colonialism.

The area was also administered as one entity from 1960 to the creation of states in 1967, through both a civilian and the military regimes. The area still shares some major economic legacies arising from these developments: Banking, Investment and Agriculture. So the governors - political inheritors of these legacies - meet regularly to brainstorm on these legacies and how to manage them. Religiously, there is no single monolithic north.

Inhabitants as in virtually every area of the globe, have different religious. There is also no cultural north. There are diverse cultures. In fact there is no political north. There never was any. Because all through, prior to colonialism during and after colonialism, there were no unanimity of political views in the north.

Indeed, there is no area in the globe that shares the same views or ideology. When we talk of north, therefore, we are referring to the MAINSTREAM political thoughts, feelings and directions at any particular point in time. It is also true that defining the MAINSTREAM views is subjective. It is also difficult to measure at this stage in quantifiable terms except after elections.

But the tendency, which admittedly is subjective, can be glimpsed from street talks, market talks, arenas and the media. Here people get fairly good pictures of the direction people are heading to. In this sense there is prevailing convergence of views across the three geo - political zones of Northern Nigeria of what happened, what is happening and what their interests are. They are all agreed that the North, virtually drafted Olusegun Obasanjo to the presidency, again against his will. Leading Northerners such as Babangida, Gusau, Danjuma, Atiku and even Dangote not only plead he contest but also put their money down for his ambitions.

We are not interested in their motives as individuals or even as groups. But each of them believes Obasanjo is an officer and gentleman who will treat all Nigerians equally. None of them, I repeat none of them thought he could be openly accused of favoring his kinsmen - against others. They believe Nigeria of 1999, fractured by June 12th needs a healer, a unifier. Has Obasanjo's performance fitted this expectation? We all have our views. Many of us argue that the north was short - changed.

Figures of federal bills on development are given which showed the Northwest and northeast have not marched up to the Southwest. Even though most of the northwest's Governors are openly campaigning for Obasanjo, they know that their people are dissatisfied. They also know that they cannot force voters to vote for Obasanjo.

Of course, results can be altered, but certainly governors cannot vote on behalf of any one but themselves. So it came to pass that the northwest governors are the first to meet with Obasanjo. The Northeast is even worse off than the northwest except for the presence of the Vice - President. Even my own hometown Yola can only boast of upgrading its airport.

But many people prefer the road from Maiduguri, and the one from Bauchi - Gombe to be dualised than a bogus airport. How many people even visit airports? Where is the North now? It is generally speaking short - changed. It is also politically marginilised. What do we mean by marginilisation? We are not referring to sharing of political posts but having its views to ascend. Concrete example: The North wanted more parties, Obasanjo initially stood against this. The North does not want National Identity cards to be used for elections because of illiteracy, vast geography, short gestation period, cost etc. Obasanjo disagreed and is administratively over ruling the North.

How can you convince any one that Obasanjo is "watching" after the interests of the North? The north constitutes two - thirds of Nigerian landmass and over 60 percent of its population. Any politician can calculate what this means. But instead of coming to terms with this reality and cutting a fair deal, this regime is aggravating the differences by drafting governors to campaign for Obasanjo irrespective of their parties and INEC insisting on its cumbersome voter review procedures.

What are the North Options? There are three broad perspectives in ascendance at the moment. First submission as represented by those surrounding Obasanjo led by Atiku, Danjuma, Ciroma, Gusau and Northern Governors. That the North should accept Obasanjo "tazarce", as fait accompli and not dare Obasanjo least it get beaten, whose implications would be felt decades after now.

The second group represented by Buhari, Rimi, Ghali Na'abba and others which I must confess is dominant on the street, is to challenge Obasanjo. That the North has nothing to lose but its humiliations. That even if Obasanjo rode himself back to power, a clear statement would have been made: The North is not a political coward. The last tendency, which is still evolving, represented by IBB and his group is to see how a middle ground can be brokered. On the streets the anger is high, and this voice is being drawn by feelings of 1999 betrayals. Another time we will look at the viability of these options.

Jika wrote from Kano.