Options Before the North
By
Abubakar Jika
As 2003 inches nearer and more political parties got
registered the political options for the North shrink.
This is ironic. In politics when you have a widen
democracy space by getting more political parties to
choose from, it is expected that you have more options
to juggle around. Sadly for Northern Nigeria, this
appears not to be so.
There are many that wager, that since two of the three
registered political parties appear to have "Northern
roots", then the north - as usual - scheme to widen
its options. This should so under normal
circumstances, and in normal chimes are so. But ours
is not. What do I mean? To answer this question, we
need to pose another more decisive one: what does the
North really want in 2003?
Before delving into this very controversial and
disputed subject, what is "Northern Nigeria"? Is
there even a "Northern Nigeria" Let us start with the
agreeable to the disputed. Yes, there is an area, a
geographical area called "Northern Nigeria". It shares
to some degrees geographical and climatic conditions.
The area also has a history of being administered as
one political and administrative unit for closed to 60
years by colonialism.
The area was also administered as one entity from 1960
to the creation of states in 1967, through both a
civilian and the military regimes. The area still
shares some major economic legacies arising from these
developments: Banking, Investment and Agriculture. So
the governors - political inheritors of these legacies
- meet regularly to brainstorm on these legacies and
how to manage them.
Religiously, there is no single monolithic north.
Inhabitants as in virtually every area of the globe,
have different religious. There is also no cultural
north. There are diverse cultures. In fact there is no
political north. There never was any. Because all
through, prior to colonialism during and after
colonialism, there were no unanimity of political
views in the north.
Indeed, there is no area in the globe that shares the
same views or ideology. When we talk of north,
therefore, we are referring to the MAINSTREAM
political thoughts, feelings and directions at any
particular point in time.
It is also true that defining the MAINSTREAM views is
subjective. It is also difficult to measure at this
stage in quantifiable terms except after elections.
But the tendency, which admittedly is subjective, can
be glimpsed from street talks, market talks, arenas
and the media. Here people get fairly good pictures of
the direction people are heading to.
In this sense there is prevailing convergence of views
across the three geo - political zones of Northern
Nigeria of what happened, what is happening and what
their interests are. They are all agreed that the
North, virtually drafted Olusegun Obasanjo to the
presidency, again against his will. Leading
Northerners such as Babangida, Gusau, Danjuma, Atiku
and even Dangote not only plead he contest but also
put their money down for his ambitions.
We are not interested in their motives as individuals
or even as groups. But each of them believes Obasanjo
is an officer and gentleman who will treat all
Nigerians equally. None of them, I repeat none of them
thought he could be openly accused of favoring his
kinsmen - against others. They believe Nigeria of
1999, fractured by June 12th needs a healer, a
unifier. Has Obasanjo's performance fitted this
expectation? We all have our views.
Many of us argue that the north was short - changed.
Figures of federal bills on development are given
which showed the Northwest and northeast have not
marched up to the Southwest. Even though most of the
northwest's Governors are openly campaigning for
Obasanjo, they know that their people are
dissatisfied. They also know that they cannot force
voters to vote for Obasanjo.
Of course, results can be altered, but certainly
governors cannot vote on behalf of any one but
themselves. So it came to pass that the northwest
governors are the first to meet with Obasanjo. The
Northeast is even worse off than the northwest except
for the presence of the Vice - President. Even my own
hometown Yola can only boast of upgrading its airport.
But many people prefer the road from Maiduguri, and
the one from Bauchi - Gombe to be dualised than a
bogus airport. How many people even visit airports?
Where is the North now? It is generally speaking short
- changed. It is also politically marginilised. What
do we mean by marginilisation? We are not referring to
sharing of political posts but having its views to
ascend. Concrete example: The North wanted more
parties, Obasanjo initially stood against this. The
North does not want National Identity cards to be used
for elections because of illiteracy, vast geography,
short gestation period, cost etc. Obasanjo disagreed
and is administratively over ruling the North.
How can you convince any one that Obasanjo is
"watching" after the interests of the North? The north
constitutes two - thirds of Nigerian landmass and over
60 percent of its population. Any politician can
calculate what this means.
But instead of coming to terms with this reality and
cutting a fair deal, this regime is aggravating the
differences by drafting governors to campaign for
Obasanjo irrespective of their parties and INEC
insisting on its cumbersome voter review procedures.
What are the North Options? There are three broad
perspectives in ascendance at the moment. First
submission as represented by those surrounding
Obasanjo led by Atiku, Danjuma, Ciroma, Gusau and
Northern Governors. That the North should accept
Obasanjo "tazarce", as fait accompli and not dare
Obasanjo least it get beaten, whose implications would
be felt decades after now.
The second group represented by Buhari, Rimi, Ghali
Na'abba and others which I must confess is dominant on
the street, is to challenge Obasanjo. That the North
has nothing to lose but its humiliations. That even if
Obasanjo rode himself back to power, a clear statement
would have been made: The North is not a political
coward. The last tendency, which is still evolving,
represented by IBB and his group is to see how a
middle ground can be brokered. On the streets the
anger is high, and this voice is being drawn by
feelings of 1999 betrayals. Another time we will look
at the viability of these options.
Jika wrote from Kano.