Shape of 2003
By
Abubakar Jika
Since I came in from South Africa six weeks
ago, I
added in-depth opinion poll sampling of northern
Nigerians into my extended research. I visited the
three geo - political zones of northern Nigeria:
northwest, northeast and north central. My visits were
quite silent and I spoke with the ordinary people, the
real voters. My main objectives are to find their political pulse
primarily on Obasanjo's Tazarce and their views on the
shape of 2003 elections. The results were startling.
In fact, it appears to me that the ordinary northern
Nigerian has aged politically in so short a time. I
and a couple of my colleagues did some opinion poll
samplings months before my trip to South Africa. It
was a limited research constrained primarily by lack
of funds.
We were genuinely interested in the scholarship
aspects of the research and deliberately kept it
secret and low profile. We did not want "money bags"
to get involve and attempt to hijack it. We were only
three, and had to rely on our own fundings, and
northern Nigeria is quite large. The results, which I
will not disclose at the moment until we carry up a
follow up in a couple of month's time, surprised us.
Suffice to say there appeared to be major shifts in
the research I personally undertook on my own. As it
is my own results, I do not have constraints of a
collective, which our first effort - a joint project -
impose on me. I therefore feel free to discuss my own
small research and my findings. I must confess it is
an informal affair. Those who can afford large-scale
research and opinion poll samplings can take it up and
see whether I was right or wrong.
Firstly, most of the ordinary people I spoke with
believe the Obasanjo regime has failed. It is their
view that when Obasanjo came to power they thought he
could do better than Shagari, Buhari, Babangida and
Abdulsalami. They say he is too distant and does not
appear to know what their problems are and what needs
to be done. They see him as insensitive, dictatorial,
who always want to have his way.
Secondly, many of them decided to discriminate when
they come to vote. That they will not vote for parties
but individuals, in the circumstance, a voter can vote
for a particular party in the local polls, another at
governorship and even a different one at the
presidential.
Thirdly, they will attend any political rally, and
would collect "transport and feeding" money even from
those they will not vote for. The size of a rally may
not be the size of the vote. According to them, when
they come to vote they will "decide on who will
deliver". In my discussions with many of them, I asked
them, can they not trust their governors and follow
him in the presidential polls, and they all declined.
They will do their own decisions themselves but will
take governors money and pretend up to the polling
booth.
Fourth, I asked them about the influence of religion
on their polling choices, they were split 60 - 40
percent, with the majority deciding to vote according
to personalities. This was different from the previous
findings, which showed strong religious factor in
voter choices. I later realized two developments
account for this sudden change: Sharia implementation
and the failure of many incumbents in the states.
Finally, I asked what if they are rigged out after the
polls, the answer was frightening: "they will resist".
It is therefore pretty obvious that politicians need
to do proper research before committing their funds.
The voters have apparently changed since 1999. Money
is still a crucial factor, but it is not the only
determinant consideration. The voters are smarter now,
they can take your money, attend your rally, wear your
dress but in the polling booth vote your opponent. The
field is now treacherous as the voters join the
elite's in their treachery.
I will not disclose my findings on some of the leading
northerners touted for the presidency and the views of
the voters for fear of being misunderstood: Buhari,
Babangida, Atiku, Rimi, Shinkafi and Lema Jubrilu. My
findings, which surprised me, would of course not be
disclosed. But the masses seem conscious of issues and
the defining agenda of choices.
One thing was obvious: they oppose power shift, which
constrain their choices. They prefer to vote a
northerner, any northerner than Obasanjo. I was very
shocked. The issue that seems to make them so resolved
may appear trivial in the eyes of the elite's, but
crucial to them: killings of northerners in Lagos and
the release of Ganiyu Adams, who now walks a free man.
The respondents contrast the judicial experiences of
Mohammed Abacha, Bamaiyi, Al - Mustapha and Danbaba
with Fasheun and Ganiyu Adams. While the former were
suspected to murdering one Yoruba lady - Kudirat
Abiola - the later were suspected of murdering
thousands of northerners. One set released
unconditionally, another set held for three years.
They cannot understand these double standards and
cannot be convinced by any governor that Obasanjo is
fair to all.
But they told me any governor that brings money to
them about Obasanjo they will take as part of their
share which God almighty return to them. They will
also eat any minister or adviser or assistant money.
They will also eat PDP money, carry the party cards
and even wear the party dress and share its materials.
But if the PDP represent Obasanjo, they will vote
against the party and support any party that field a
northerner, whether Muslim or Christian.
I believe this would be the shape of 2003 presidential
elections. I guess it was what Rimi was referring to
when he declared the PDP would lose if it represent
Obasanjo and he will campaign against Obasanjo in the
north. Ghali, the Speaker may also be privy to these
feelings, hence they scramble to distance themselves
from the Obasanjo project. I hope my friend Kwankwaso
also read the mood of his own people on ground:
selling Obasanjo will be quite difficult.
Already Makarfi and Adamu of Kaduna and Nassarawa
states are having serious problems over the Obasanjo
project though they are pretending as if all is well.
I may not be surprised if the petition on the duo that
is threatening their integrity is linked to this. I
may not be surprised.
Jika wrote this from Kano.