Obasanjo

Obasanjo, Shagari and Buhari

Abubakar Jika

Many political pundits are increasingly drawing comparisons between Obasanjo's second coming and that of Shehu Shagari. The lackluster performance of this regime and its glaring failures compel observers to draw distinct similarities and of course differences between the second and fourth Republics. President Obasanjo and his "Tazarce" chorus may feel uncomfortable being compared with Shagari's lackluster administration. This comparison starts from the banal.

A Shagari is now minister of water resources. The younger Shagari is a son of the former President Shagari. Obasanjo drafted the younger Shagari to bolster his sagging image in the Northwest Obasanjo organized the election that ushered the second republic, which was led by Shehu Shagari. That was 1979. Twenty years after Obasanjo returned as elected president. That was 1999. When Obasanjo was leaving in 1979 the officer who commandeered the troops that bid him farewell was Colonel Abdulsalami Abubakar. The Head of State who welcomed Obasanjo back to power and who handed over Government back to him was General Abubakar. The commanding officer had become a General and Head of State.

Obasanjo's party the PDP remind most of us of the former NPN of Shehu Shagari. Both had National spread. The North and southern minorities accepted both. The Yorubas rejected both. The Yorubas on both occasions formed their tribal parties, which made no impact outside their tribal enclaves.

Both PDP and NPN have no ideology. Both were hurriedly formed to simply drive away the soldiers. Both parties lost their visions immediately they came to power. Now to more serious comparison Muhammadu Buhari a General of the Nigerian Army was in the forefront of the soldiers that drove out the NPN. The same General Buhari now a civilian like Obasanjo is in the forefront of the National effort to drive away the PDP through the ballot box. Could this be a coincidence? This is because Muhammadu Buhari before this year was apolitical. Indeed he has contempt with the way our politics was runned. He drove the NPN in 1983. Can he drive the PDP in 2003? Political pundits are already taking the Buhari challenge seriously.

Northern Governors and Northerners surrounding Obasanjo who are telling him not to take Buhari serious are deceiving him. I am more objective. I had neither served Obasanjo nor Buhari. In fact I never met Buhari but I met Obasanjo at his Otta Farm during one of his Africa Leadership Dialogue. He was then a common citizen like me. I was in the university teaching and he was a chicken farmer. In those days we thought we have solutions to all Nigeria's problems.

I can still remember in 1990 in one of the sessions which Obasanjo personally attended with me, we proffered a way forward for the Nigerian economy. Ten years after in 2000 Obasanjo was and still in charge of the Nigerian economy. In that year, Obasanjo allowed the western powers through our monitory authorities to devalue our currency the Naira. When Obasanjo came to power the Naira was exchanging at 87 to a dollar. Today it exchanges for 140 to the dollar.

When we were brainstorming at the eve of the Babangida increase in fuel prices, Obasanjo was calling for SAP with a human face. We all agreed with him at Otta. Ten years after Obasanjo was trying to convince us to increase fuel prices. In fact Nigerian workers for the first time went on strike but were disgraced. Obasanjo won the last workers strike, which was forcefully demobilized. The Buhari challenge in the circumstance is a moral challenge. Many in the south particularly southwest imagine that because of his Sharia utterances Buhari can only challenge Obasanjo in the north. This is not so for the precise reason that Obasanjo has performance deficit. The failure of this government is so glaring that Obasanjo cannot be repackaged & resold on expectation of performance.

In 1999 Nigerians bought a recycled Obasanjo on the altar of his 1976 - 1979 achievements. More especially everyone agreed that he was one detribalized Yoruba who can pacify his fellow Yorubas without antonizing the rest of us who are none Yoruba.

In the past three years this President in my view demystify himself. His performance in the view of many Nigerians is below the 1976 - 1979 standards. There are many in his own party who politely said he could have done better. There are many in his own party who publicly shouts that he is an abject failure. Some in his government claim that this is a national government involving all parties hence his failure is a failure of the political class. Indeed except those serving Obasanjo and those who are benefiting from them, the general impression of most Nigerians is that if Obasanjo is to come back to Aso Rock in 2003 it will not be on the basis of his performance record. Since other Nigerians are no longer scared of Yoruba threats to break away from Nigeria pacifying the Yoruba is no longer prime consideration for the rest of us.

So, it came to pass that the north alone is said to be parading seven presidential candidates, while the Igbos have about eight candidates. The southern minorities have about two. There are therefore at least twenty other Nigerians who are none Yoruba who are willing, ready and able to offer alternative to Obasanjo. Any of them that God crown would replace Baba in Aso Rock in 2003.

The greatest deficit of this regime in my view is the reduction of Baba in the estimation of many northerners from a pan--Nigerian nationalist to part of a Yoruba Afenifere agenda. He is seen as defender and promoter of anti northern Yoruba agenda. Those holding this view cite his insistence on using I.D cards with photograph in voter registration. This will obviously disenfranchise many Muslim women in northern Nigeria as insisted by Sheikh Dahiru Bauchi. The learned Sheihk told us in Kaduna that the current voter registration procedure is Obasanjo's plan to reduce northern voters to 35% of their current strength.

This led northern Houses of Assembly and northern traditional rulers to take a final stand supporting us and threatening to boycott the voters registration unless Obasanjo goes back to the process used to register voters that voted for him. The last I had of the story is that Obasanjo has blinked. Obasanjo handed over to Shagari in 1979 after one term and a few months Buhari led the army to drive away Shagari in 1983. The same Buhari has vowed to drive away Obasanjo through the ballot box after one term that ends in 2003. Many are seeing interesting coincidence. Indeed as many say there are interesting times ahead.

JIKA wrote this from KANO