POLICY INTERROGATION, DISCOURSE AND DEBATE BY
OSELOKA H. OBAZE
Trump -- election of a politically
incorrect candidate
oho.state@gmail.com
Like many, I was hoping he would not win, but I had troubling
insights that affirmed the possibility of Donald Trump emerging
victorious. On the day of the election, I told my third son during
a "family chat" to vote for Trump. The rest of the family took
umbrage, until I said I was joking. But I had foreseen the hand
writing on the wall. A Trump presidency was plausible! You gain
such broad and varying insights from reading and listening closely
and that is what political analysts do. And if you are inclined to
buck the trend and resist being straight-jacketed by conventional
thinking, you find out more about improbable situations. How did
America and the world arrive at this Regarscent moment and Brexit
déjà vu in electing their president?
First, history repeated itself, ala the Gore vs. Bush
electoral results. In 2000, Gov. George W. Bush lost the popular
vote to former Vice-President Al Gore, but won the electoral vote
for U.S. president. It’s ironic that the Democrats will again win
the popular vote and lose the presidency via electoral vote in 2016.
What hitherto was probability is now a reality. American wonder!
The more you look the less you see. Second, there was also the
political prediction made in 1920 by H.L. Mencken in the
Baltimore Evening Sun of 20 July 1920, now trending on social
media, wherein Mencken presciently said: "As democracy is perfected,
the office of the president represented more and more closely, the
inner soul of the people. On a great glorious day, the plain folks
of the land, will reach their heart's desire at last, and the White
House will be occupied by downright fool and narcissistic moron."
Was Trump's election a presidency foretold?
Third, by reading between the lines, I came across some convincing
pointers that we were headed for a Trump presidency. Besides the
fact that Americans remain rebellious against hereditary or dynastic
politics, which was why they scuttled the Kennedys, but unguardedly
allowed the Bushes to repeat, only to be handed disasters,
unwinnable wars, 9/11 and bags of regrets, there were other
considerations. Let's not forget that Trump dissed the Republican
establishment, once tweeting his gladness about "the lack of support
from the G.O.P., because it unshackles him." Yet, two viewpoints,
both candid, unfurled for me the American mindset that resulted in
Trump’s election.
First was, Omarosa Manigault, an
African-American woman and democrat who was a ranking Trump
official, perhaps the highest black in his set up. She said she
became a Republican because of the "fractures in the Democratic
Party, and particularly how they treated President Obama. I was
really turned off." Second, was the blunt view expressed by Karen
Hartman of Douglas, Michigan. Her words: "Too many politicians have
had their heads in the sand for too long, concerned only about
holding office. Trump, who vows to smash all before him, seems the
only remedy to a status quo that is not working..We didn't get to
where we are solely thanks to the Republicans. Democrats share the
blame."
On a personal note, I schooled and lived in the United States for
over thirty years starting in the mid-70s in the rural corn-belt
state of Nebraska. In all those years, by choice, I never became a
U.S. permanent resident or an American citizen. I deeply respect
American enterprise, ingenuity and patriotism, but I also understand
fully their gullibility, limited world view and parochial mindset,
which led to Trump’s election. I've severally encountered ennobling
Americans and ugly Americans too. There is a rich diversity in both
categories. The difference between the Americans and their British
cousins is that for the American, everything is either Black or
White even beyond race, and every blustery point is blunt-as blunt
as Trump. For the British, nothing is ever black or white; there are
shades of white and shades of black. Nuance is king. Paradoxically,
it's easier to read the quirky British, than to read the masked
American. It was the masked Americans that elected Trump.
Trumps election is not a bad dream. It’s reality. Attractive as it
was, a Hillary Clinton presidency would have been a hard act to
actualize even as it looked achievable. Moreover, beyond gender
and glass ceiling sentiments, how does one contrive that Hillary
Clinton, a smart woman, well-groomed and independent-minded spouse
of a nearly impeached former president will be elected to succeed
Barack Obama; a smart black man of African descent, with a Muslim
middle name, who served two full terms to the chagrin of some of his
compatriots, many who are still not convinced he is an American?
Hard indeed! Whatever happened to the real America; those
descendants of Mayflower passengers? Trump was their trump
card. Go figure!
Obnoxiousness and politically
incorrectness have their values. Yet few politicians embrace such
options openly. Donald Trump dared to and he won. Trump ran
against the grain of conventional wisdom by saying very offensive
things, while pushing the "Let's Make America Great Again"
mantra, which synched with the hidden mindset of mainstream
white America. Trump indeed cast himself as the only one capable of
altering "the status quo that wasn't working" thus rekindling the
nostalgia of good old America. He triggered a white lash! Americans
only projected all their grouses and anti-establishment feelings
into a hidden support for Trump. Do Americans feel duped? Ongoing
protestations say so; but time will tell.
I've been variously asked what the
implications are of Donald Trump's victory for Nigeria, politically
and economically. It's obvious that Trump's election has vast
implications for the U.S., the World and for Africa, Nigeria
included. His "America First" proclamation and other
utterances, points to greater insularity. As such, he is likely to
deal with Nigeria in the Africa context. If his foreign engagement
is purely strategic, it would mean seeking out and outsourcing
regional challenges to willing regional partners like Nigeria. The
broad scope his immigration redaction, will favour those Nigerians
that need to be regularized; the rest will be simply deported, no
questions asked. On Nigeria's socio-economic challenges, we should
expect little or no assistance; nothing exceptional. Yet, I make
bold to predict that as president, Trump will visit Nigeria within
his first four years, something President Obama did not do in eight
years.
Which Trump will lead America? Being
politically incorrect might have helped elect Trump president; but
it certainly won’t help him run the U.S. and the World. The U.S.
Presidency is not the Apprentice. A huge difference exists between
being a candidate or president-elect and being President of the
United States. America is no longer a lone superpower; so Trump
will confront a bullish Russia, an expansive China and an
intractable Middle East. Having won, Trump bears the burden of his
divided party, traumatized country and untrusting world; he will
discover that the American presidency is no walk in the park. Trump
will, however, need to first heal America and decide what to do with
the 29 million people on Obamacare, which he plans to scrap. If he
keeps his promise of ridding America of illegal aliens, parts of
U.S. domestic sector will suffer immeasurably. The impact will be
huge, with labour and production costs tripling. Mr. Trump,
welcome to our real world! Unfortunately, he can’t be fired.
----
Obaze
is MD/CEO of Selonnes Consult Ltd.
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