The
sum of all this was that everyone who held views contrary to the pope’s was in
error. But the pope, even if he errs, is infallible. So error is not permitted
unless committed by the pope.
Afenifere/PCF
has become the Pope Pius IX of Nigerian politics. It claims a moral high ground
and insists that it will only join a party made up of politicians of
unquestionable integrity. Questionable integrity of course is a matter of
definition. Persons whose names were associated with the Maroko land deals or
who were jailed for corruption are, in the opinion of many Nigerians persons of
questionable character. As are politicians whose latest political cause revolves
around a struggle to swear-in a president who was an agent of ITT, a military
contractor and close friend of military dictators.
But
then, like the Pope, the definition of good character is the sole prerogative of
Afenifere. When it brands a politician’s character questionable, he has to be
excommunicated from the party. In the event that their associates (God help
them) refuse to accept this verdict, they are to be punished by the Afenifere
storming out of the alliance, thus denying the ingrates the honour of having the
PCF in their fold and, by implication, withdrawing Yoruba votes en-bloc . This
infantile petulance, reminiscent of a contumacious minor, is just one expression
of the
Behind
all the hypocritical self-righteousness is the fact that the real issue is a
South- West Presidency. Anyone who needs a lesson in how not to be a politician,
and how never to win power in Nigeria should study Yoruba politicians. Unless
the Yoruba masses disown Afenifere, this group of degree-bearing political
illiterates will lead Yoruba land down its own version of a syllabus of errors,
an island unto themselves, hallucinating in their own idiocy and content to
remain marginalised citizens in their own country while blaming the north for
their self – inflicted woes. The syllabus of Errors remains a black spot on
the history of the Catholic Church. Afenifere will be an even blacker spot on
the political history of the Yoruba.
Friends
of the Yoruba people thought that Afenifere finally got it right when it joined
the PDP, a product of the G34 that had opposed Abacha in his last days. At the
last moment they jumped ship on spurious claims that the party had members who
were not committed to the principles of power-shift and others who were anti
June 12. Political sources claim that the names PCF objected to were all
southerners from outside the south-west. The interpretation of perceptive
watchers was that Afenifere was scared of such names as Ekwueme, Ogbemudia and
Etiebet. It seemed even if southern politicians convinced their northern allies
to cede the presidency, other parts of the south were preparing to produce
capable hands that were eminently qualified to vie for the post. This was a
threat to the Yoruba Presidency.
No
one doubts that this thinking makes sense. And no one denies Afenifere the right
to seek the presidency for the Yoruba. But the reality on ground is that within
the PDP Afenifere had its best chance for a Yoruba presidency. Adamu Ciroma was
a staunch defender of June 12. Abubakar Rimi is Bola Ige’s close friend and as
Governors, both had been part of the Progressive Governor’s Alliance in the
Second Republic. Jerry Gana, Solomon Lar, Sunday Awoniyi, all are middle-belters
arguably tired of playing second-fiddle to the upper north. In fact, the
northern elements of the PDP seem to have initiated the moves to contact
Obasanjo to run for the presidency. But Afenifere would have none of this. The
Tribune Newspaper fired the first Salvo
in a campaign of calumny against Obasanjo, reminding him of his remark on
Gowon’s ambition (“what did he forget in the State House that he is going
back for?”) and insinuating that he was sponsored by IBB, the archenemy of
Yorubas and June 12. But the journey had just started and the possibilities were
there for an Afenifere candidate in the PDP. Besides, no one single politician
within the PDP had a political machinery anywhere near as formidable as the
PCF’s. Rimi has lost the radical
wing of the PRP to Balarabe Musa. Adamu
Ciroma, though widely respected, is somewhat impaired by his having served under
Abacha.
If
any one ever doubted the capacity of Afenifere for political suicide, or if
anyone ever thought me harsh on Yoruba politicians in my earlier writings,
nothing proves me right as developments subsequent to their leaving PDP. Nothing
beats the imagination as the realisation that Afenifere actually believed, in
joining Umaru Shinkafi’s APP, that
Shinkafi, of all politicians, would hand over the presidency without a fight.
Shinkafi, the Marafan Sokoto (remember Shagari, the Turakin Sokoto and Ahmadu
Bello, the Sardaunan Sokoto?) is an aristocrat in the classic tradition of the
Sokoto Caliphate. He had presidential ambition in the
NRC in the ill-fated third republic and has kept his nation-wide
political machinery well-oiled and his ambition intact. With Yar'Adua dead,
Shinkafi is probably the single politician with the widest reach – given his
aristocratic background, his marriage to Ahmadu Bello’s daughter, his
professional background as a retired crack police DIG and Director General of
the NSO. Unlike his rivals like Adamu Ciroma and Bamanga Tukur, he was clever
enough to keep his distance from the Abacha government.
Shinkafi’s
pedigrees speak mountains of what his political stance would be ab initio. He probably believes, like other Fulani politicians, that
the problems of this country have a lot to do with the shift in power away from
the Fulani to individuals like Babangida and Abacha, products of “ lower cultures”. The Fulani of the North, proud of the history
of the Caliphate, remain proud of the roles played by Fulani leaders of the
political and military establishment in Nigeria- Ahmadu Bello, Murtala Mohammed,
Aminu Kano, Shehu Yar’Adua, Shehu Shagari, Jubril Aminu. They are sad that
other Nigerians do not know the difference in ethnic background between say,
Murtala Mohammed and Ibrahim Babangida. They do not understand how a man like
Abacha, born to a cigarette-seller in Fagge quarters of Kano (and this
speaks mountains of him, how he ruled and how he died) can be taken as the
quintessential representative of the Caliphate whose head he disgraced and whose
culture and values he sought to erode.
So
Shinkafi probably believes in the need for a power-shift: Back to the Fulani. He
may not be alone in this tendency. Politicians like Mahmud Waziri, Bamanga Tukur, Jubril Aminu, even M. D. Yusufu may consciously or unconsciously have similar
views. They will accept a southern president, but only if the South is able to
win the presidency democratically. To the Fulani, there is nothing like ceding
the presidency or power. If you want it, you work for it...If you lack the
stomach to dig in and fight, too bad for you.
Southern
politicians have always failed to understand the complexity of the North and its
politics. Otherwise they would have known that they stood no chance against
Shinkafi in his own party. The moment PCF joined the APP, it was clear to those
who read between the lines that Shinkafi had given no commitments. They were in
agreement that power must shift. They were also in agreement that no one should
be denied the right to contest for the highest office of the land on account of
where he comes from. Shinkafi can single handedly deliver 10% of the votes
in 24 states required to form a party. He needs the PCF to win in the Southwest,
but without the PCF he can get 10% in a number of Southwestern states based on
his connections as a politician, security officer and a foundation member of the
Grand Council of Islamic Affairs, a
rival group of mainly Yoruba Muslim
leaders set up as a counter-force to the Fulani-dominated Supreme Council.
In
the scheme of things, that Afenifere could find it within itself to go into the
same political party as Shinkafi is remarkable. That they thought it was a
better deal than the PDP is flabbergasting. That they actually believed he would
hand over the presidency to them is to say the least, lunacy.
Now,
the PCF has formed an association in alliance with marginal southern groups.
What will happen if they continue like this is predictable. If they succeed in
being registered, they will probably win in the southwest and no where else.
Like the Action Group and UPN, they will remain an ethnic based opposition
party. Or they may crawl back into the APP or PDP under the guise of some
“reconciliation”.
Otherwise,
likely, given these antecedents, they will fail to win 10% of votes in 24 states
of the Federation. They will fail to be registered. They will challenge INEC in
court or challenge the validity of the Transition Programme. They will lose in
court and accuse the rest of the country of
They will try to reenact the wild, wild west scenario of the first republic, instigate area boys to make the west ungovernable. With Federal government safely out of the southwest troops will be sent in to maintain law and order. A few hundred area boys will be shot, order will be restored. Brilliant Yoruba military officers will become suspected of being influenced by their civil society. They will be denied strategic posts and their careers will be prematurely terminated. Afenifere will blame the North, particularly the Hausa-Fulani for the travails of the Yoruba. Accuse the Fulani of domination and ethnic cleansing. They will wail and wail. And the country will go on regardless.
The reader will note that this cycle has been on for some time. It is history repeating itself because stupid victims never learn. How does all of this serve the interest of the Yorubas? The Yorubas need to ask themselves : with leaders like these, do they need enemies? Do they need Fulanis to marginalise them? It is time for the Yoruba of the Southwest to recognise Afenifere/NADECO for what it is: An Infantile Disorder.