MONDAY DISCOURSE BY DR. ALIYU U. TILDE Losing Afghanistan
The United States can claim anything but
victory in Afghanistan. Last week, the war claimed the career of one of
its most distinguished soldiers, General Stanley McChrystal. Underneath
the excuse of “lapse in judgement” that was generally given to cover the
insubordination that led to his sack and subsequent resignation from
service lies the undeniable fatigue which the General and his troops were
subjected to by the war, a fatigue characterised by the inability to
subdue a resurgent enemy who, though small, appear increasingly resilient
and progressively emboldened by the failure of a superpower that cannot
even put its house in order.
The fatigue of the commanders has infected
the minds and pockets of American citizens at home. Recent polls show that
the majority who do not support the war is increasing by the day. A
poll conducted in early June by ABC News and Washington Post show that 53%
of Americans believe that the war is not worth fighting for. In addition,
58% want their troops back, starting July 2011, as shown by the latest USA
Today/Gallup poll on the war. Both Obama and David Patraeus have expressed
the optimism in their recent statements early that the date is realistic.
The allies are more worn out with the war.
America tried only with little success to convince some of them to send
additional troops last year. The support for the war among their citizens
is far lower than what it is among Americans. Among Germans and French,
for example, 80% did not support the surge, seeing the war not as their
problem and a waste of resources, according to a leaked and widely quoted
CIA/INR document. The Europeans are in greater haste to withdraw. They
will not wait for the Americans to show them the way. The Dutch would lead
them, starting next December, by withdrawing their 3,000 troops. The
Americans would definitely need some tricks to sustain the support of
their NATO allies. The absence of Bush and Blair, the chief ideologues of
the war against terror, will be felt, though their advice will not be
farfetched. Exit strategy is the oft-repeated word in Washington on the Afghan war since the demise of the Bush Administration. Part of that strategy now is speaking to the Taliban. However, the resurgents are not in the mood of speech, but that of victory: "We are certain that we are winning. Why should we talk if we have the upper hand, and the foreign troops are considering withdrawal, and there are differences in the ranks of our enemies?” they told the BBC yesterday.
I wonder why John
Simpson, the World Affairs Editor of the BBC through whom the Taliban
message was sent yesterday, had difficulties recognizing the logic of the
insurgents. Here is a war whose commanders
are frustrated, its citizens tired, its allies half-heated, and its
Commander-in-Chief is withdrawing. Defeat is the only word that is not
heard of yet, but it could be discerned from every sentence in its
discourse. From this point one can easily see the “upper hand” which the
Taliban is claiming in this “war of necessity”, as Obama would call it.
Last week, Obama told both Americans and
“our enemies” that the substitution of McChrystal with Patraeus is a
“change in personnel, not a change in strategy.” However, the new
commandant has repeatedly assured parents and the troops that he will not
favour military operations that endanger the lives of their soldiers in
attempting to protect the civilian casualties. He has also hinted that he
will be more aggressive to the Taliban than his predecessor. From this we
can predict more civilian casualties, something that would definitely
extinguish further the little support for the war that remains among the
Allies who will then see more pictures of women and children killed by
their troops. Thence, the call for troops withdrawal would resurge with a
greater vigour.
The Taliban, on their part, are not scared.
They carried out an audacious attack two days ago on a major NATO base in
Jalabad. Though it was a suicide bombing that was hardly intended to
engage the Allies, it was nevertheless their choice of telling Gen
Patraeus, “You are welcome.” With this determination, an exit strategy
more dignifying to the US and its allies than an unconditional withdrawal
as the Taliban are demanding can hardly be envisaged.
The US and its allies are stuck in
Afghanistan, as did the Soviet Union in the 1970s and 80s and the British
before them in the 19th Century. However, while war could on
both occasions be prosecuted with unrestrained brutality, the Geneva
Convention and the open access to information put the US and its allies in
more precarious situations than the Mongols, the British or the Soviets.
It is only a matter of time that the world would witness the withdrawal of
yet another superpower from a land that is not its, leaving Afghans to
determine their future as do citizens of other nations. That is the only
road to peace; the only exit followed by other Empires that invaded that
stubborn land before and the only one open to the US and its allies today.
We hope they will have the wisdom to follow it. War is not necessary;
peace is.
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