The common sense we often take for granted is not common in politics.
Nigerian politicians invest so much energy in politics but with very
little result to show. In the end, even as a ruling party, the PDP only
succeeds in keeping itself on power through rigging, while the
opposition parties return home empty handed after every election,
complaining, because they are unable to overcome their egos and unite
against the behemoth at the center.
I wrote my last essay under the assumption that the opposition parties
are true realists as their rhetoric portrayed since their defeat in
2007; that they will merge, they will align, or simply do whatever it
requires to unite and remove the ruling PDP from power. They held many
talks without producing any result. So they let the chance of merger, or
what they called "megaparty", to slip away. Then they entered the stage
of alliance. Here too, they are dragging their feet, unable to script
down a document that would be to their common satisfaction. They are
behaving like the Children of Israel at the gate of the City.
It is getting late, again. Only three days are left before INEC closes
the gate of submissions. The only one that would remain is that of some
of the candidates lining up behind one, with little chance of
bargaining, and hence little possibility of occurrence. Like in 2007, we
may approach the polls with a divided opposition assuring the PDP of
another four year tenure. They would have wasted their time and smashed
our hopes.
The arithmetic is simple, for we outsiders, anyway. It informs the most
fundamental principle in Nigerian politics: the River Niger principle,
if the reader would allow my innovation. No politician or party has ever
become the President of this country without crossing the Niger. We are
not blessed with a Mwalimu, like Tanzania, that would rally us behind
the ideology of a motherland; we do not have a pact that shares powers
in predetermined ways like Lebanon; etc. But we have the Niger. It dares
every candidate to cross it and pick the mantle of leadership. "Cross
me, shake the hands of your brothers on the other side and your ambition
is fulfilled", the river has told every presidential candidate in the
past and present.
Many candidates attempted but failed, either because they did not know
how to sail or because they lacked the engine power to make the
distance. Some did not even attempt it as they were satisfied with the
little crabs they could pick on their side of the river. Only four
succeeded: NPC during the First republic, NPN during the Second, SDP
during the Third, and PDP during the Fourth. The opposition parties
could not. They allowed the ruling parties to steal the boats.
As the country yearns for change from its present state of decadence,
the Niger is once more daring the opposition parties. Unless the CPC and
the ACN cross the river, our hope for change next April is diminished.
Goodluck can as well start to bake his victory cake and hold
pre-election victory party right now. I assure him that he woud not need
to rig, such that my brother Jega can have less stressful days ahead.
Last weekend the two sides could not agree on the MoU. On Monday, one
side snubbed the other by not turning up at all. Yesterday too, no
agreement was reached at. If they fail to reach any by the end of the
week, they will both put themselves in that debilitating situation where
the high probability of failure will weaken their resolve and drain
their support.
The opposition parties should not think that they have much time left.
Even after they sign the agreement, they would realize that they need to
cover a lot of ground against the ruling PDP which has enormous
resources at its disposal, sufficient to buy voters and rig elections.
Greater than resources to surmount is the religious divide that the
party has entrenched already and which no victory would come to the
opposition without it being bridged. And bridging it would require a lot
of sagacity, time and effort. The comfort of Abuja hotels is not for the
opposition now.
If the talks between the parties fail, let the candidates start talking
directly, perchance as individuals they might not be encumbered with the
divergent interests of their parties. If they are patriotic enough, some
of them will withdraw for someone. It is interesting to learn that
Buhari is already exploring this option by inviting Ribadu to discuss
the issue a week ago, an invitation which the latter honoured without
delay. The advantage here is that neutral intermediaries would be
allowed a role to play. But this too has to be pursued quickly;
otherwise, any delay would be to the disadvantage of the emerging
candidate.
So let us pray that the opposition parties and their candidates would
muster the courage to agree soon and cash on the promise of the Niger.
Otherwise, let them give up hope of making a big catch next April but
content themselves with the crabs and snails that they would pick on
their own side of its bank.
If they do not hearken to the call of the river, the PDP would, as it
has been doing before.
Bauchi,
25 January, 2011