President Jonathan represents a paradox. He is always quick to plead for
leniency in expectations. "I am not David...or an army general", he
declared in a church service two months ago. He only abides by the
Hidden Hand of destiny that made him the President, he explained. With
this property, one expects him to be passive and less ambitious than his
predecessors who attempted to play God.
His actual ambitions, however, defy his unassuming mien. He has so far
proposed two projects that have demystified three powerful generals
before him. Amidst serious national security challenges that confined
him to the Villa, the President proposed to the National Assembly the
one-term elongated tenure bill. Though I reliably learned that the
proposal was indeed borne out of his long standing conviction that
second tenure kills executive initiatives and that he does not intend to
benefit from it, the President was just too simple in hoping that his
good intention alone was enough to overcome the public skepticism that
would kill the bill even before it reaches the floor of the parliament,
particularly when the memories of Obasanjo’s Third Term agenda are still
fresh. Where does the bill stand right now? What made the President hope
that he would succeed where the generals failed?
Removal of fuel subsidy is another task that has defeated generals
before Jonathan. This ambition has so far survived every President since
Babangida, except Shonekan and Abdulsalami Abubakar whose sleeps were
too brief to entertain the dream. In the end, those generals consoled
themselves with increasing pump price when they failed to remove the
subsidy completely. This President is again giving it a shot and his
attempt is already greeted with deafening protests from every Nigerian
outside the executive arm of government. Nigerians are neither attracted
by the pretext of his argument nor lured by its promise.
Telling Nigerians that money 'saved' from the subsidy will be used to
advance their welfare is an old tale narrated by previous
administrations. It was told by moonlight; by dawn it was gone.
Nigerians are not ready to squander their hope on what they perceive as
another empty promise, especially given the lightening speed with which
the notorious Governors Forum approved it.
The pretext is more compelling to rejection. The teacher in the
President exposed him to divulge that the removal is necessary to deny
the syndicate of oil importers the bumper harvest of N800billion
annually. This invited Nigerians to wonder why a President and Commander
in Chief would choose curb a corrupt practice by punishing its victims
and pardoning the culprits.
His meeting with members of National Assembly yesterday was an eye
opener to the impossibility of his task. They will kill it on the floor
of the house as they killed the 'Sad Term' of Obasanjo. Other Nigerians
will be waiting. Labour in particular has made it categorically clear
that it will fight the increase to the last man. Ordinary Nigerians may
take to the streets. The President may not find supporters even among
the clergy that dignified every mistake he committed before. The support
by the President of the Christian Association of Nigeria was met with
immediate dissociation from his members. The cleric had to disclaim it
unreservedly, realizing that unlike during the elections, Nigerians
cannot be persuaded to empty their pockets at the altar of religious
sentiment. It seems that the President has crossed the line.
There are unverified reports that the President is even threatening to
resign should the proposal fail. I am not worried that much because in
spite of his strong conviction on the necessity of removing the subsidy
the President will soon yield to abandon it. As he retreats, he may find
consolation that even generals have retreated from that front. Or as Abu
Zaid would coin it in The Assemblies of al-Hariri:
"If your request is turned down, do not feel ashamed. Verily Musa and
Khidr were turned down before."
As they sleep in the cozy beds of the Villa, Nigerian Presidents are
bound to have all sorts of dreams, good and bad. That of removing fuel
subsidy is a bad one, Jonathan must know. He must also be wise enough to
make his ambition a function of his capacity. He must know his limits
and abide by them. By this measure, a wise counsel will tell the
President to forget removing the fuel subsidy. Instead, he should use
the instrument of law to fight the cartel that is feeding fat on the
blood of the lean Nigetian masses. It is better to die a martyr of a
just cause than waste his time pursuing a bad dream.
However, should the President persist and effect the removal, I am
afraid that it may just be the Bouazizi trigger we waiting for so long.
In that case the paradox of the President would be a blessing to
celebrate. So much fuel has accumulated on the floor of the Nigerian
political forest. The spark needed to start its conflagration may just
be around. From its ashes a better nation may sprout again.
Watch out