This morning the Occupy Nigeria protests against fuel subsidy removal (FSR)
entered its second day. It has been a resounding success. Never in the
past fifty years of my life have I seen the country absolutely shut down
by a consensus of its citizens like this. Nigerians have proved to the
world, and convinced themselves now, that despite their differences they
collectively harbour their country in their hearts. They are not ready
to sacrifice their welfare at the altar of some meaningless ethnic
differences. Bravo!
It is noteworthy to mention that the protest have so far claimed minimal
casualties by Sub-Saharan standards. I was delighted that the security
chiefs decided at their meeting last week that protesters should not be
attacked by security forces. This indicates that we are making progress
in our ascent on the barometer of human rights. We need to sustain it.
As we celebrate this success, it is pertinent to start applying our
intellects to the fate of the process we gallantly started. It is
important to foresee the obstacles that are likely to avert its success
and leave us broken-hearted. What are the possible arsenals that
government would deploy from its armoury and how do we immobilize them
aground? Which natural and human forces can we count on and which ones
do we protect ourselves against?
Time
Having witnessed a number of protests in Nigeria before, a number of
things naturally come into focus. The first is time. This is both an
enemy and a friend. From my experience, the "fizzle out" doctrine of
Obasanjo and Jonathan must be a phenomenon to conquer if the protests
must succeed. Many things can push people to wear out and abandon the
protests. Chief among them is the biting poverty especially among urban
dwellers whose majority live on daily bread. Rural dwellers will also
suffer because their produce cannot sell when market days do not hold.
Their vegetables will rot and their animals will go for a pittance when
urban dwellers do not mop them up on market days. As the food chain is
severed, city dwellers will be hit hard with scarcity.
If workers of essential services that provide healthcare, water and
electricity also join the strike, life of citizens will freeze. For how
long can we survive such sub-zero temperatures when we are accustomed to
the motherly tropical climate of Africa must presently be the subject of
intense discussions in both government and labour circles. Known that
they are bereft of any hibernation skills, Nigerians must find a way to
prolong their survival under such a winter, while the government
intensifies its effort to drop the temperature much farther as quick as
possible to enable a lethal shock effect.
I was a lecturer in Sokoto when the Dasuki crisis of 1988 broke out. On
the first afternoon, it seemed as if the masses in Sokoto town would
sustain their resolve to success, no matter how long it will take. The
atmosphere of dissent covered the city with its rare fragrance of
freedom and defiance. How pleasant was its breathe it air and how
beautiful was it to witness its scenes! But by the fourth day, empty of
cash and foodstuff, the people were begging for the Sokoto Market open,
grudgingly depositing their fate in God, trusting that He will judge in
their favour in the next world. But God wished that Dasuki will remain
the Sultan, and so he did, until when Abacha deposed him in 1996.
Each us therefore has the duty of managing his affairs to enable him,
his family and, of course, other Nigerians to maintain the tempo of the
protest until our goal is achieved. We must know that governments under
such circumstances are aware that time is naturally on their side. So
they wait, like vultures, for our energies to dissipate and for our
patience to runout before they strike at the few survivors with brutal
force or with offers that a demoralized labour will find difficult to
turn down.
Here, in addition to advising Nigerians to store provisions and cash,
Labour must be innovative in inventing means to keep us marching
forward. To do this, it requires the fuel necessary to keep our engines
running. Fortunately, social media is here to aid us. Let there be, for
example, more revelations on government corruption, what is in its mind
at any given moment and the devices it plans to employ to quell the
protests. Let us know the division in its ranks. A mix of fact and
propaganda and facts, if you like. The government has fed us on lies all
along. We must work ahead of it. As I wrote this paragraph, the
following text message came in coincidentally:
"Now available for sale in different sizes: bicycles, camels, horse and
donkeys. We can also train and equip your dog, goat, ram,etc to carry u
around. They all don't use fuel or gas. Visit us at our office. No. 1,
Oil Subsidy Road. Alison Madueke Junction. Goodluck Close. Off
Okonjo-Iweala Street, by Labaran Maku Avenue, Austin Aniwon Crescent,
Sanusi Lamido Area, Abuja. Or call 080-GEJ/DAM P-ABUJA."
What a pleasant satire!
As found in other countries, the larger population should mobilize its
singers to entertain its mind and instigate its writers to feed its
resolve. Elders and our women must strike at the nerve of revolt in our
youths and revive their African courage. For their personal
aggrandizement and the neocolonial ends of their masters in the World
Bank and IMF, few gangsters that have been sucking our blood must not be
allowed to continue killing the African child and enslaving 164 million
of its folk. This is an opportunity to break their shackles and end
their misrule.
Once we can defeat time and sustain the protests, the government will be
brought to its knees. This is the secret behind the success of the Arab
Spring, when they confronted Pharoahs like Ben Ali, Mubarak and Gaddafi,
professionals in tyranny, worse than the thieving rats that we call our
leaders. The international community that Jonathan is so mindful of will
then press him to yield yo our demands in the fear that he may lose the
power all together. That is when time becomes our friend.
Division
But the government is not likely to count on the passive effect of time
alone. I have no doubt that it will attempt to use more active
strategies.
Money, politics and religion will be recruited by government at will as
potent agents of destabilizing the protests. Since the beginning of his
tenure, President Jonathan has shown unprecedented readiness to disburse
huge money to buy off his opponents, religious leaders and the
parliament. In fact, this is the crux of the FSR. To partially finance
his election campaigns, commentators have alleged that over N800 billion
was stolen in the name of subsidy, causing the figure to jump from its
traditional N300 billion annually.
An attempt will be made to buy the trade unions leaders or part of them.
Mainstream religious leaders have already started a campaign to persuade
their followers from future participation, as evidenced from a BBC Hausa
interview with some leaders of Jammatu Nasril Islam and CAN last
Saturday. The name of God will be invoked to anasthetise the population.
Likewise, there are allegations that the National Assembly has been
compromised before it went on Christmas holiday. Part of the advanced
payment, it is alleged, was the removal of Farida Waziri from the EFCC
chair and the payment of N10 million to each senator and N5m to each
member of the House of Representatives before the Christmas break.
Though we may never know the truth about this, the silence of the
parliamentarians, especially the senators, is surprising, given how they
shouted down the President when he introduced the matter to them at a
special dinner earlier in 2011.
Jonathan, his cabinet and the governors can also appeal to PDP
sentiments among the population. They can create an atmosphere that will
enable them claim that the opposition has hijacked the protests; that it
is a subversive attempt to bring down the PDP government; etc. Organized
labour and Nigerians in general must, therefore, be watchful of
politicians that cannot resist the temptation of manipulating the
protests to their ends.
Lastly, "Boko Haram" is a readily available tool. Mercenaries can be
sent to kill worshippers in order to stir bad blood amongst us and
divert our attention. Already serious questions are being raised about
the identity of the people who carried out the recent attacks on
Christians in the Northeastern towns of Gombe, Mubi and Yola. We hope
the security agents will tell Nigerians the truth about them.
Repression
When push comes to shove, government will employ its security apparatus
or thugs to stop the protests by blocking, intimidating and attacking
civilians, not withstanding the resolve of the security chiefs not to
deploy force. Protesters will be ready to remain peaceful, but violence
can easily be instigated by hiring some agents to commit arson on
government property, to engage the police in violence, etc. We have
already witnessed the unfortunate incident at Government House Kano
yesterday. Such attacks will provide government with the desired pretext
to "retaliate" to "keep the peace", using live ammunition as they have
done twice in Kano.
Whether the death of their countrymen would ignite the fear in
Nigerians, persuading them to abandon the protest, or the blood of its
martyrs would water the tree of their defiance is a quest that cannot be
answered with any certainty now. The use of violence by government,
however, is a possibility that is highly probable, especially with many
Nigerian governors who have finished calculating how much they would
loot from the FSR funds and who have so far shown zero degree of
restraint in unleashing state apparatus of coercion against their
citizens.
Immobilization
The most lethal weapon Nigerians can employ apart from hoarding its
abour is to immobilize the security personnel upon which the government
depends. Let us persuade soldiers, policemen, custom officers and
immigration officials to side with us, their brothers and sisters. Once
they refuse to be used by government, Jonathan will have no option but
to concede to our demands. This responsibility does not rest with labour
alone but with anyone among us who can reach out to someone among the
security forces.
State of Emergency
Finally, a state of emergency will be the joker that the President will
use, if all the above fail. We have seen how the PDP used curfew to rig
elections in Kaduna and Bauchi States. The need to use it when the
regime is under threat will be more compelling by a President that is
deaf to the demand of his entire countrymen.
Conclusion
These are the challenges awaiting the protests that are currently dubbed
"Occupy Nigeria" or Zanga Zanga in Hausa. Mentioning them here is not
intended to discourage, but to remind us that the path to freedom has
never been smooth for anyone throughout history. Freedom, the Americans
say, is not free. Or as the late Sayid Qutb would put it, "the tree of a
cause is watered by the blood of its martyrs."
Bauchi
10 January 2012